Charlotte Hornets at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- Kon KnueppelPoints28
- LaMelo BallAssists9
- Moussa DiabateRebounds12
Pacers- Bennedict MathurinPoints24
- T.J. McConnellAssists8
- Bennedict MathurinRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game118–127
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter118–127
- Q411.9Ben Sheppard defensive rebound118–127
- Q413.9Kon Knueppel misses 28-foot three point pullup jump shot118–127
- Q416.5Hornets offensive team rebound118–127
- Q418.9Collin Sexton misses driving layup118–127
- Q423.0Ben Sheppard makes free throw 2 of 2118–127
- Q423.0Pat Connaughton enters the game for Sion James118–126
- Q423.0Ben Sheppard makes free throw 1 of 2118–126
- Q423.0Collin Sexton personal take foul118–125
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q11:15Jay Huff makes 28-foot three point jumper (Pascal Siakam assists)CHA 32 – 33 IND · IND 42% → 49% +7IND 42% → 49%+7 pts
- Q139.1Ben Sheppard makes 27-foot three point jumper (T.J. McConnell assists)CHA 33 – 36 IND · IND 46% → 53% +7IND 46% → 53%+7 pts
- Q28:02Jay Huff makes 30-foot three point jumper (T.J. McConnell assists)CHA 43 – 49 IND · IND 54% → 62% +7IND 54% → 62%+7 pts
- Q25:16Jarace Walker makes 27-foot three point jumper (Bennedict Mathurin assists)CHA 45 – 56 IND · IND 67% → 74% +7IND 67% → 74%+7 pts
- Q24:07Jarace Walker makes 28-foot three point jumper (Andrew Nembhard assists)CHA 49 – 59 IND · IND 65% → 73% +7IND 65% → 73%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hornets 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- CHA -1.5
- ML CHA -130 / IND +110
- Pre-line forecast
- CHA 44%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- CHA 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.9 pts
- CHA: Elo 50.4%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- CHA -119
- IND +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHA 119.5 – 118.0 IND
- Posted spread, posted total 237.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1333 | 1460 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +73 | −93 | CHA: Stronger than its recent lineups · IND: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHA +3 Elo | CHA 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 56.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 55.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHA 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30116.5 | Points scored | 108.929th of 30 |
| 21st of 30119.7 | Points allowed | 123.427th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−3.2 | Margin | −14.529th of 30 |
| 19th of 30113.5 | Offense rating | 103.030th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30116.6 | Defense rating | 116.724th of 30 |
| 18th of 30102.0 | Pace | 104.16th of 30 |
| 22nd of 302–8 | Last 10 | 1–928th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301–6 | Road vs home | 1–527th of 30 |
| 24th of 301480 | Opponent Elo | 15226th of 30 |
| 29th of 301333 | Elo rating | 146021st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hornets
+73 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pacers
−93 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHA |  IND |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–7 | 5–9 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 1–0 | 0–2 |
| Underdog | 6–7 | 5–7 |
| Overs–unders | 6–8 | 5–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHA 4–3 IND in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.