LA Clippers at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- James HardenPoints31
- James HardenAssists8
- Ivica ZubacRebounds19
Magic- Jalen SuggsPoints23
- Jalen SuggsAssists7
- Tristan da SilvaRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game101–129
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter101–129
- Q412.9Yanic Konan Niederhauser makes tip shot101–129
- Q412.9Yanic Konan Niederhauser offensive rebound99–129
- Q413.6Cam Christie misses driving floating jump shot99–129
- Q429.5Jase Richardson makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jamal Cain assists)99–129
- Q444.5Yanic Konan Niederhauser offensive goaltending turnover99–126
- Q456.0Goga Bitadze makes free throw 2 of 299–126
- Q456.0Goga Bitadze makes free throw 1 of 299–125
- Q456.0Yanic Konan Niederhauser shooting foul99–124
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q11:22Jett Howard makes 26-foot three point jumper (Wendell Carter Jr. assists)LAC 21 – 26 ORL · ORL 70% → 76% +6ORL 70% → 76%+6 pts
- Q11:08Brook Lopez makes 26-foot three pointer (James Harden assists)LAC 24 – 26 ORL · LAC 24% → 30% +6LAC 24% → 30%+6 pts
- Q27:52Nicolas Batum makes 23-foot three point jumper (Chris Paul assists)LAC 32 – 37 ORL · LAC 19% → 24% +6LAC 19% → 24%+6 pts
- Q25:20Tristan da Silva makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jalen Suggs assists)LAC 36 – 42 ORL · ORL 71% → 78% +6ORL 71% → 78%+6 pts
- Q23:05James Harden makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshotLAC 44 – 49 ORL · LAC 18% → 24% +6LAC 18% → 24%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Magic 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- ORL -6.5
- ML LAC +200 / ORL -240
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -3.5
- ORL 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.7 pts
- ORL: Elo 63.2%, market 67.9%
- Fair odds
- ORL -212
- LAC +212 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 106.0 – 112.5 ORL
- Posted spread, posted total 218.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −26 | +12 | LAC: Weaker than its recent lineups · ORL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ORL +94 Elo | ORL 63.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 60.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 60.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ORL 67.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30111.7 | Points scored | 115.920th of 30 |
| 16th of 30116.3 | Points allowed | 113.97th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−4.6 | Margin | +1.915th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30112.3 | Offense rating | 112.720th of 30 |
| 24th of 30116.9 | Defense rating | 110.811th of 30 |
| 30th of 3097.8 | Pace | 102.019th of 30 |
| 22nd of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–39th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301–5 | Road vs home | 5–313th of 30 |
| 9th of 301516 | Opponent Elo | 149517th of 30 |
| 19th of 301490 | Elo rating | 151016th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
−26 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Magic
+12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAC |  ORL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–10 | 7–8 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 2–7 | 4–8 |
| Underdog | 2–3 | 3–0 |
| Overs–unders | 8–6 | 8–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAC 4–0 ORL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.