LA Clippers at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- James HardenPoints55
- Chris PaulAssists8
- Ivica ZubacRebounds9
Hornets- Kon KnueppelPoints26
- LaMelo BallAssists7
- Moussa DiabateRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game131–116
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter131–116
- Q40.5Mason Plumlee out of bounds bad pass turnover131–116
- Q41.0shot clock turnover131–116
- Q425.4Collin Sexton makes two point shot (Sion James assists)131–116
- Q428.8Chris Paul bad pass (Sion James steals)131–114
- Q442.1Collin Sexton makes free throw 2 of 2131–114
- Q442.1Collin Sexton makes free throw 1 of 2131–113
- Q442.1Jahmyl Telfort personal foul131–112
- Q452.5Sion James defensive rebound131–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q13:04Chris Paul makes 26-foot three point jumper (Brook Lopez assists)LAC 26 – 24 CHA · LAC 46% → 53% +7LAC 46% → 53%+7 pts
- Q12:44James Harden makes 26-foot three point shot (Chris Paul assists)LAC 29 – 24 CHA · LAC 53% → 60% +7LAC 53% → 60%+7 pts
- Q311:03James Harden makes 27-foot three point shot (Kris Dunn assists)LAC 67 – 59 CHA · LAC 63% → 71% +8LAC 63% → 71%+8 pts
- Q35:00Kon Knueppel makes 25-foot three point shot (Collin Sexton assists)LAC 83 – 75 CHA · CHA 18% → 25% +8CHA 18% → 25%+8 pts
- Q34:08James Harden makes 26-foot three pointerLAC 88 – 76 CHA · LAC 78% → 85% +7LAC 78% → 85%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hornets 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- CHA -1.5
- ML LAC +100 / CHA -120
- Pre-line forecast
- CHA 40%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -0.5
- CHA 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.5 pts
- CHA: Elo 48.7%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- CHA -109
- LAC +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 113.0 – 114.5 CHA
- Posted spread, posted total 227.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | CHA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1476 | 1323 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −32 | +75 | LAC: Weaker than its recent lineups · CHA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +9 Elo | LAC 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 60.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 59.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHA 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30111.0 | Points scored | 116.620th of 30 |
| 18th of 30117.1 | Points allowed | 120.222nd of 30 |
| 24th of 30−6.1 | Margin | −3.621st of 30 |
| 23rd of 30111.2 | Offense rating | 113.618th of 30 |
| 25th of 30117.3 | Defense rating | 117.124th of 30 |
| 30th of 3098.2 | Pace | 102.118th of 30 |
| 27th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 2–824th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301–6 | Road vs home | 3–421st of 30 |
| 8th of 301519 | Opponent Elo | 148521st of 30 |
| 20th of 301476 | Elo rating | 132329th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
−32 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hornets
+75 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAC |  CHA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–11 | 7–8 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–7 | 1–1 |
| Underdog | 2–4 | 6–7 |
| Overs–unders | 9–6 | 7–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAC 4–0 CHA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.