LA Clippers at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- James HardenPoints29
- James HardenAssists9
- Ivica ZubacRebounds10
Lakers- Luka DoncicPoints43
- Luka DoncicAssists13
- Luka DoncicRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game118–135
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter118–135
- Q40.1Lakers offensive team rebound118–135
- Q42.4Bronny James misses 24-foot three point step back jumpshot118–135
- Q48.0Cam Christie makes free throw 2 of 2118–135
- Q48.0Clippers offensive team rebound117–135
- Q48.0Cam Christie misses free throw 1 of 2117–135
- Q48.0Adou Thiero shooting foul117–135
- Q425.3Drew Timme makes two point shot (Bronny James assists)117–135
- Q430.3Kobe Sanders bad pass (Drew Timme steals)117–133
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q29:32Austin Reaves makes 25-foot three pointerLAC 45 – 44 LAL · LAL 58% → 65% +7LAL 58% → 65%+7 pts
- Q21:23Kris Dunn makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot (James Harden assists)LAC 62 – 62 LAL · LAC 27% → 35% +8LAC 27% → 35%+8 pts
- Q246.7Luka Doncic makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotLAC 64 – 67 LAL · LAL 65% → 73% +8LAL 65% → 73%+8 pts
- Q32:34Marcus Smart makes layup (Luka Doncic assists)LAC 89 – 90 LAL · LAL 58% → 65% +7LAL 58% → 65%+7 pts
- Q344.0Marcus Smart makes 23-foot three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)LAC 91 – 95 LAL · LAL 65% → 75% +10LAL 65% → 75%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lakers 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- LAL -6.5
- ML LAC +225 / LAL -275
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -6
- LAL 72%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.8 pts
- LAL: Elo 72.3%, market 70.4%
- Fair odds
- LAL -238
- LAC +238 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 110.5 – 117.0 LAL
- Posted spread, posted total 227.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1593 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +18 | +37 | LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +166 Elo | LAL 72.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 66.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 67.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAL 70.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30111.8 | Points scored | 117.316th of 30 |
| 18th of 30117.2 | Points allowed | 114.611th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−5.4 | Margin | +2.614th of 30 |
| 21st of 30112.4 | Offense rating | 114.911th of 30 |
| 24th of 30117.8 | Defense rating | 112.415th of 30 |
| 30th of 3098.0 | Pace | 101.918th of 30 |
| 24th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 8–24th of 30 |
| 23rd of 302–7 | Road vs home | 4–214th of 30 |
| 12th of 301510 | Opponent Elo | 148124th of 30 |
| 18th of 301482 | Elo rating | 15936th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
+18 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Lakers
+37 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAC |  LAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–12 | 11–5 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 2–7 | 5–2 |
| Underdog | 3–5 | 6–3 |
| Overs–unders | 10–7 | 10–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAC 2–6 LAL in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 8.
- Mar 2LAC 102 @ LAL 108Picked LAC 54%Miss
- Feb 28LAC 102 @ LAL 106Picked LAL 54%Hit
- Feb 4LAL 122 @ LAC 97Picked LAC 75%Miss
- Jan 19LAL 102 @ LAC 116Picked LAC 62%Hit
- Feb 28LAL 116 @ LAC 112Picked LAC 51%Miss
- Jan 23LAL 116 @ LAC 127Picked LAC 74%Hit
- Jan 7LAC 103 @ LAL 106Picked LAC 61%Miss
- Nov 1LAC 125 @ LAL 130Picked LAC 60%Miss