Los Angeles Lakers at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- Luka DoncicPoints33
- Luka DoncicAssists8
- Luka DoncicRebounds11
Jazz- Keyonte GeorgePoints27
- Keyonte GeorgeAssists8
- Jusuf NurkicRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game108–106
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter108–106
- Q41.7Jazz offensive team rebound108–106
- Q41.7Keyonte George misses 22-foot three point jumper108–106
- Q45.8Marcus Smart enters the game for Gabe Vincent108–106
- Q45.8Jazz Full timeout108–106
- Q45.8Luka Doncic makes free throw 2 of 2108–106
- Q45.8Lakers offensive team rebound107–106
- Q45.8Luka Doncic misses free throw 1 of 2107–106
- Q45.8Svi Mykhailiuk personal take foul107–106
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q33:58Austin Reaves makes driving layup (Jake LaRavia assists)LAL 73 – 78 UTAH · LAL 42% → 49% +7LAL 42% → 49%+7 pts
- Q33:01Luka Doncic makes 25-foot three point shot (Austin Reaves assists)LAL 77 – 78 UTAH · LAL 52% → 63% +11LAL 52% → 63%+11 pts
- Q48:54Ace Bailey makes 25-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Collier assists)LAL 87 – 85 UTAH · UTAH 18% → 29% +11UTAH 18% → 29%+11 pts
- Q441.3Lauri Markkanen makes 24-foot three point shot (Ace Bailey assists)LAL 107 – 106 UTAH · UTAH 3% → 30% +27UTAH 3% → 30%+27 pts
- Q45.8Luka Doncic makes free throw 2 of 2LAL 108 – 106 UTAH · LAL 88% → >99% +11LAL 88% → >99%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lakers 77%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- LAL -9.5
- ML LAL -425 / UTAH +320
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 79%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -8
- LAL 78%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.9 pts
- LAL: Elo 78.2%, market 77.3%
- Fair odds
- LAL -340
- UTAH +340 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 127.5 – 118.0 UTAH
- Posted spread, posted total 245.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1591 | 1378 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +55 | −2 | LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups · UTAH: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | LAL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | LAL +221 Elo | LAL 78.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 79.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 78.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAL 77.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30117.9 | Points scored | 118.914th of 30 |
| 14th of 30115.2 | Points allowed | 126.129th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+2.7 | Margin | −7.225th of 30 |
| 9th of 30115.9 | Offense rating | 112.222nd of 30 |
| 18th of 30113.3 | Defense rating | 119.026th of 30 |
| 21st of 30101.6 | Pace | 103.87th of 30 |
| 4th of 308–2 | Last 10 | 3–719th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–2 | Road vs home | 4–418th of 30 |
| 19th of 301491 | Opponent Elo | 15314th of 30 |
| 7th of 301591 | Elo rating | 137826th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
+55 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Jazz
−2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAL |  UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 11–4 | 8–7 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 5–1 | 1–1 |
| Underdog | 6–3 | 7–6 |
| Overs–unders | 10–5 | 9–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAL 6–2 UTAH in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.
- Nov 18UTAH 126 @ LAL 140Picked LAL 84%Hit
- Feb 12LAL 119 @ UTAH 131Picked LAL 77%Miss
- Feb 10UTAH 113 @ LAL 132Picked LAL 84%Hit
- Dec 1LAL 105 @ UTAH 104Picked LAL 64%Hit
- Nov 19UTAH 118 @ LAL 124Picked LAL 82%Hit
- Feb 14LAL 138 @ UTAH 122Picked UTAH 65%Miss
- Jan 13LAL 125 @ UTAH 132Picked UTAH 68%Hit
- Nov 21UTAH 99 @ LAL 131Picked LAL 55%Hit