Oklahoma City Thunder at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints31
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists8
- Jaylin WilliamsRebounds6
Jazz- Keyonte GeorgePoints20
- Keyonte GeorgeAssists8
- Jusuf NurkicRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game144–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter144–112
- Q44.5shot clock turnover144–112
- Q426.5Chris Youngblood defensive rebound144–112
- Q431.2Cody Williams misses 26-foot three point shot144–112
- Q437.1Brice Sensabaugh defensive rebound144–112
- Q438.7Chris Youngblood misses two point shot144–112
- Q454.7Kyle Filipowski makes two point shot (Walter Clayton Jr. assists)144–112
- Q459.0Taylor Hendricks defensive rebound144–110
- Q41:01Jaylin Williams misses 23-foot three point jumper144–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q12:50Isaiah Collier makes 25-foot three point jumper (Cody Williams assists)OKC 21 – 39 UTAH · UTAH 36% → 43% +7UTAH 36% → 43%+7 pts
- Q23:31Jaylin Williams makes 25-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)OKC 56 – 60 UTAH · OKC 71% → 77% +7OKC 71% → 77%+7 pts
- Q311:28Svi Mykhailiuk makes 25-foot three point jumper (Ace Bailey assists)OKC 67 – 72 UTAH · UTAH 21% → 28% +7UTAH 21% → 28%+7 pts
- Q38:35Ace Bailey makes 22-foot three point jumper (Keyonte George assists)OKC 77 – 80 UTAH · UTAH 19% → 26% +7UTAH 19% → 26%+7 pts
- Q35:40Luguentz Dort makes 25-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)OKC 86 – 84 UTAH · OKC 77% → 84% +7OKC 77% → 84%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 91%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 90–95% have won 98.7% of 78 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -16.5
- ML OKC -2000 / UTAH +1000
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 89%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -11
- OKC 86%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.7 pts
- OKC: Elo 85.6%, market 91.3%
- Fair odds
- OKC -1048
- UTAH +1048 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 125.5 – 109.0 UTAH
- Posted spread, posted total 234.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1721 | 1383 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −3 | +1 | OKC: Usual rotation · UTAH: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | UTAH crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | OKC +310 Elo | OKC 85.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 89.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 89.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 91.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30121.3 | Points scored | 119.411th of 30 |
| 1st of 30105.9 | Points allowed | 124.929th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+15.4 | Margin | −5.423rd of 30 |
| 5th of 30117.1 | Offense rating | 112.521st of 30 |
| 1st of 30102.3 | Defense rating | 117.626th of 30 |
| 25th of 30100.9 | Pace | 103.710th of 30 |
| 2nd of 309–1 | Last 10 | 3–719th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–1 | Road vs home | 4–317th of 30 |
| 30th of 301437 | Opponent Elo | 151411th of 30 |
| 1st of 301721 | Elo rating | 138326th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
−3 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Jazz
+1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OKC |  UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–8 | 8–6 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 8–8 | 1–1 |
| Underdog | — | 7–5 |
| Overs–unders | 8–8 | 8–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OKC 7–1 UTAH in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 8.
- Apr 11OKC 145 @ UTAH 111Picked OKC 76%Hit
- Feb 21OKC 130 @ UTAH 107Picked OKC 89%Hit
- Jan 22UTAH 114 @ OKC 123Picked OKC 90%Hit
- Dec 3UTAH 106 @ OKC 133Picked OKC 87%Hit
- Mar 20UTAH 107 @ OKC 119Picked OKC 78%Hit
- Feb 6OKC 117 @ UTAH 124Picked UTAH 50%Hit
- Jan 18OKC 134 @ UTAH 129Picked UTAH 52%Miss
- Dec 11UTAH 120 @ OKC 134Picked OKC 82%Hit