Utah Jazz at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jazz- Keyonte GeorgePoints34
- Keyonte GeorgeAssists8
- Jusuf NurkicRebounds10
Lakers- Luka DoncicPoints37
- LeBron JamesAssists12
- Deandre AytonRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game126–140
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter124–140
- Q419.8Jake LaRavia defensive rebound124–140
- Q422.9Kyle Anderson misses 12-foot pullup jump shot124–140
- Q432.1Jake LaRavia makes free throw 2 of 2124–140
- Q432.1Lakers offensive team rebound124–139
- Q432.1Jake LaRavia misses free throw 1 of 2124–139
- Q432.1Ace Bailey shooting foul124–139
- Q448.4Cody Williams makes driving layup (Isaiah Collier assists)124–139
- Q41:00Jake LaRavia makes driving layup (Bronny James assists)122–139
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q23:55Svi Mykhailiuk makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshot (Jusuf Nurkic assists)UTAH 59 – 48 LAL · UTAH 41% → 49% +8UTAH 41% → 49%+8 pts
- Q22:34Luka Doncic makes 29-foot three point jumper (Rui Hachimura assists)UTAH 61 – 57 LAL · LAL 60% → 68% +8LAL 60% → 68%+8 pts
- Q310:16Ace Bailey makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot (Svi Mykhailiuk assists)UTAH 78 – 71 LAL · UTAH 35% → 44% +9UTAH 35% → 44%+9 pts
- Q32:43Brice Sensabaugh makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot (Kyle Anderson assists)UTAH 91 – 91 LAL · UTAH 20% → 29% +9UTAH 20% → 29%+9 pts
- Q31:50Luka Doncic makes 23-foot three point jumper (Marcus Smart assists)UTAH 91 – 95 LAL · LAL 74% → 82% +9LAL 74% → 82%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lakers 84%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- LAL -13.5
- ML UTAH +500 / LAL -800
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 84%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -10
- LAL 83%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.1 pts
- LAL: Elo 83.1%, market 84.2%
- Fair odds
- LAL -533
- UTAH +533 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 113.5 – 127.0 LAL
- Posted spread, posted total 240.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1387 | 1588 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +4 | +44 | UTAH: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +277 Elo | LAL 83.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 83.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 83.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAL 84.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30118.9 | Points scored | 116.319th of 30 |
| 28th of 30123.7 | Points allowed | 114.410th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−4.8 | Margin | +1.916th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30112.3 | Offense rating | 114.912th of 30 |
| 25th of 30116.8 | Defense rating | 113.118th of 30 |
| 10th of 30103.4 | Pace | 101.124th of 30 |
| 21st of 303–7 | Last 10 | 8–24th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301–5 | Road vs home | 3–215th of 30 |
| 10th of 301514 | Opponent Elo | 150115th of 30 |
| 26th of 301387 | Elo rating | 15886th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Jazz
+4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Lakers
+44 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTAH |  LAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–5 | 10–4 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 4–1 |
| Underdog | 7–4 | 6–3 |
| Overs–unders | 7–6 | 9–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTAH 2–5 LAL in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.