Memphis Grizzlies at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Grizzlies- Zach EdeyPoints32
- Vince Williams Jr.Assists7
- Zach EdeyRebounds17
Kings- DeMar DeRozanPoints23
- Russell WestbrookAssists7
- Precious AchiuwaRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game115–107
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter115–107
- Q419.2Kentavious Caldwell-Pope defensive rebound115–107
- Q422.3DeMar DeRozan misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot115–107
- Q430.7Jaylen Wells makes free throw 2 of 2115–107
- Q430.7Kentavious Caldwell-Pope enters the game for Zach Edey114–107
- Q430.7Jaylen Wells makes free throw 1 of 2114–107
- Q430.7Precious Achiuwa enters the game for Maxime Raynaud113–107
- Q430.7Maxime Raynaud personal take foul113–107
- Q432.6Cedric Coward defensive rebound113–107
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:48Zach LaVine makes 28-foot three point step back jumpshot (DeMar DeRozan assists)MEM 99 – 99 SAC · SAC 30% → 48% +17SAC 30% → 48%+17 pts
- Q45:22Malik Monk makes two point shot (Russell Westbrook assists)MEM 99 – 101 SAC · SAC 48% → 60% +12SAC 48% → 60%+12 pts
- Q44:51Keegan Murray makes 11-foot driving floating jump shot (DeMar DeRozan assists)MEM 102 – 103 SAC · SAC 41% → 54% +13SAC 41% → 54%+13 pts
- Q44:16Zach Edey makes 3-foot two point shot (Jaren Jackson Jr. assists)MEM 104 – 103 SAC · MEM 45% → 59% +14MEM 45% → 59%+14 pts
- Q43:24Zach Edey makes two point shotMEM 106 – 103 SAC · MEM 60% → 74% +14MEM 60% → 74%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Grizzlies 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- MEM -3.5
- ML MEM -145 / SAC +125
- Pre-line forecast
- MEM 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MEM -2.5
- MEM 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.2 pts
- MEM: Elo 59.3%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- MEM -133
- SAC +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 118.5 – 115.0 SAC
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1426 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −40 | −72 | MEM: Weaker than its recent lineups · SAC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MEM +65 Elo | MEM 59.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MEM 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MEM 54.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MEM 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 30113.3 | Points scored | 112.025th of 30 |
| 17th of 30117.0 | Points allowed | 123.328th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−3.7 | Margin | −11.329th of 30 |
| 24th of 30109.7 | Offense rating | 107.927th of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.3 | Defense rating | 118.827th of 30 |
| 12th of 30102.7 | Pace | 103.110th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 2–825th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Road vs home | 3–624th of 30 |
| 5th of 301524 | Opponent Elo | 15691st of 30 |
| 16th of 301496 | Elo rating | 142623rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
−40 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Kings
−72 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MEM |  SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–12 | 7–13 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 5–2 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 3–10 | 6–11 |
| Overs–unders | 7–13 | 10–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MEM 2–5 SAC in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 7.