Phoenix Suns at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Mark WilliamsPoints21
- Collin GillespieAssists9
- Mark WilliamsRebounds16
Kings- Keegan MurrayPoints19
- Keegan MurrayAssists3
- Drew EubanksRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game112–100
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter112–100
- Q410.9shot clock turnover112–100
- Q434.9Malik Monk makes two point shot112–100
- Q439.7Malik Monk defensive rebound112–98
- Q441.9Royce O'Neale misses 26-foot three point jumper112–98
- Q41:04Dillon Brooks defensive rebound112–98
- Q41:07Precious Achiuwa misses free throw 1 of 1112–98
- Q41:07Collin Gillespie shooting foul112–98
- Q41:07Precious Achiuwa makes layup (Malik Monk assists)112–98
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:23Dillon Brooks makes 27-foot three point jumper (Collin Gillespie assists)PHX 5 – 0 SAC · PHX 66% → 72% +6PHX 66% → 72%+6 pts
- Q18:57Devin Booker makes 28-foot three point jumper (Royce O'Neale assists)PHX 15 – 4 SAC · PHX 77% → 81% +5PHX 77% → 81%+5 pts
- Q34:26Keegan Murray makes 30-foot three point jumper (DeMar DeRozan assists)PHX 72 – 63 SAC · SAC 11% → 16% +6SAC 11% → 16%+6 pts
- Q32:25Malik Monk makes 26-foot three point jumper (Keegan Murray assists)PHX 76 – 68 SAC · SAC 11% → 18% +6SAC 11% → 18%+6 pts
- Q48:34Russell Westbrook makes 26-foot three pointerPHX 93 – 84 SAC · SAC 5% → 11% +5SAC 5% → 11%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Suns 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- PHX -4.5
- ML PHX -185 / SAC +155
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -5
- PHX 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.3 pts
- PHX: Elo 69.6%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- PHX -166
- SAC +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 119.0 – 114.5 SAC
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1551 | 1439 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −10 | −78 | PHX: Weaker than its recent lineups · SAC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHX +144 Elo | PHX 69.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 63.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 63.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHX 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30117.1 | Points scored | 112.325th of 30 |
| 7th of 30113.3 | Points allowed | 123.727th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+3.7 | Margin | −11.428th of 30 |
| 12th of 30114.6 | Offense rating | 107.928th of 30 |
| 10th of 30110.9 | Defense rating | 118.926th of 30 |
| 21st of 30101.5 | Pace | 103.39th of 30 |
| 4th of 308–2 | Last 10 | 2–823rd of 30 |
| 16th of 303–4 | Road vs home | 3–523rd of 30 |
| 26th of 301479 | Opponent Elo | 15771st of 30 |
| 11th of 301551 | Elo rating | 143923rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
−10 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Kings
−78 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHX |  SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 12–6 | 7–11 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 7–1 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 5–5 | 6–9 |
| Overs–unders | 8–10 | 9–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHX 5–5 SAC in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 10.
- Oct 22SAC 116 @ PHX 120Picked PHX 61%Hit
- Apr 13PHX 98 @ SAC 109Picked SAC 86%Hit
- Mar 14SAC 106 @ PHX 122Picked PHX 53%Hit
- Nov 13PHX 104 @ SAC 127Picked SAC 74%Hit
- Nov 10SAC 127 @ PHX 118Picked SAC 51%Hit
- Apr 12PHX 108 @ SAC 107Picked PHX 55%Hit
- Feb 13SAC 125 @ PHX 130Picked PHX 57%Hit
- Jan 16SAC 117 @ PHX 119Picked PHX 53%Hit