Minnesota Timberwolves at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints41
- Anthony EdwardsAssists4
- Rudy GobertRebounds12
Suns- Dillon BrooksPoints22
- Devin BookerAssists10
- Mark WilliamsRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–114
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–114
- Q40.7Timberwolves offensive team rebound113–114
- Q40.7Julius Randle misses 28-foot three point pullup jump shot113–114
- Q46.4Collin Gillespie makes 9-foot driving floating jump shot113–114
- Q411.5Rudy Gobert enters the game for Joe Ingles113–112
- Q411.5Collin Gillespie enters the game for Oso Ighodaro113–112
- Q411.5Suns Full timeout113–112
- Q411.5Ryan Dunn defensive rebound113–112
- Q412.7Anthony Edwards misses free throw 2 of 2113–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:44Mark Williams makes 10-foot driving floating jump shot (Devin Booker assists)MIN 100 – 102 PHX · PHX 46% → 61% +15PHX 46% → 61%+15 pts
- Q43:08Donte DiVincenzo makes 28-foot three point jumper (Anthony Edwards assists)MIN 104 – 102 PHX · MIN 45% → 69% +24MIN 45% → 69%+24 pts
- Q42:40Dillon Brooks makes 9-foot two point shotMIN 104 – 104 PHX · PHX 30% → 47% +17PHX 30% → 47%+17 pts
- Q421.4Jordan Goodwin makes two point shotMIN 113 – 112 PHX · PHX 3% → 26% +23PHX 3% → 26%+23 pts
- Q46.4Collin Gillespie makes 9-foot driving floating jump shotMIN 113 – 114 PHX · PHX 13% → 86% +73PHX 13% → 86%+73 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -4.5
- ML MIN -195 / PHX +165
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -2.5
- MIN 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.0 pts
- MIN: Elo 59.7%, market 63.7%
- Fair odds
- MIN -175
- PHX +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 117.5 – 113.0 PHX
- Posted spread, posted total 230.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1602 | 1551 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +24 | −17 | MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups · PHX: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | PHX crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIN +68 Elo | MIN 59.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 65.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 64.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 63.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30120.6 | Points scored | 119.312th of 30 |
| 8th of 30114.1 | Points allowed | 114.18th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+6.5 | Margin | +5.310th of 30 |
| 5th of 30117.3 | Offense rating | 116.48th of 30 |
| 12th of 30111.0 | Defense rating | 111.213th of 30 |
| 13th of 30102.8 | Pace | 101.820th of 30 |
| 5th of 308–2 | Last 10 | 8–25th of 30 |
| 4th of 305–2 | Road vs home | 6–29th of 30 |
| 28th of 301462 | Opponent Elo | 146427th of 30 |
| 4th of 301602 | Elo rating | 155110th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
+24 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Suns
−17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  PHX |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–9 | 10–5 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 6–6 | 6–1 |
| Underdog | 0–3 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders | 8–7 | 8–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 8–3 PHX in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 11.
- Mar 28PHX 109 @ MIN 124Picked MIN 73%Hit
- Mar 2MIN 116 @ PHX 98Picked MIN 51%Hit
- Jan 29MIN 121 @ PHX 113Picked PHX 51%Miss
- Nov 17PHX 117 @ MIN 120Picked MIN 72%Hit
- Apr 28MIN 122 @ PHX 116PlayoffsPicked MIN 58%Hit
- Apr 26MIN 126 @ PHX 109PlayoffsPicked MIN 55%Hit
- Apr 23PHX 93 @ MIN 105PlayoffsPicked MIN 62%Hit
- Apr 20PHX 95 @ MIN 120PlayoffsPicked MIN 61%Hit