Houston Rockets at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Amen ThompsonPoints28
- Amen ThompsonAssists8
- Amen ThompsonRebounds7
Suns- Dillon BrooksPoints29
- Devin BookerAssists5
- Nick RichardsRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–92
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–92
- Q47.4shot clock turnover114–92
- Q429.3Jeff Green defensive rebound114–92
- Q431.8Isaiah Livers misses 24-foot three point step back jumpshot114–92
- Q435.2Suns offensive team rebound114–92
- Q435.7Jamaree Bouyea misses two point shot114–92
- Q456.6Aaron Holiday makes 9-foot two point shot114–92
- Q41:04Clint Capela offensive rebound112–92
- Q41:08Jeff Green misses 26-foot three point jumper112–92
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q133.2Aaron Holiday makes 27-foot three point jumper (JD Davison assists)HOU 27 – 23 PHX · HOU 69% → 75% +6HOU 69% → 75%+6 pts
- Q252.6Collin Gillespie makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotHOU 54 – 50 PHX · PHX 19% → 26% +7PHX 19% → 26%+7 pts
- Q239.4Jabari Smith Jr. makes 27-foot three point jumper (Amen Thompson assists)HOU 57 – 50 PHX · HOU 74% → 81% +7HOU 74% → 81%+7 pts
- Q33:11Royce O'Neale makes 26-foot three point jumper (Oso Ighodaro assists)HOU 78 – 71 PHX · PHX 11% → 18% +6PHX 11% → 18%+6 pts
- Q411:49Collin Gillespie makes 27-foot three point jumper (Royce O'Neale assists)HOU 84 – 78 PHX · PHX 12% → 19% +7PHX 12% → 19%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -6.5
- ML HOU -250 / PHX +210
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -2.5
- HOU 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.0 pts
- HOU: Elo 60.8%, market 68.9%
- Fair odds
- HOU -221
- PHX +221 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 114.5 – 108.0 PHX
- Posted spread, posted total 222.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1593 | 1564 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | PHX on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +19 | −25 | HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups · PHX: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +77 Elo | HOU 60.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 70.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 69.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 68.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30122.9 | Points scored | 118.512th of 30 |
| 4th of 30112.5 | Points allowed | 113.36th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+10.4 | Margin | +5.29th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30121.3 | Offense rating | 115.710th of 30 |
| 10th of 30111.1 | Defense rating | 110.67th of 30 |
| 28th of 3099.0 | Pace | 101.819th of 30 |
| 4th of 308–2 | Last 10 | 8–24th of 30 |
| 6th of 305–2 | Road vs home | 8–26th of 30 |
| 11th of 301511 | Opponent Elo | 147525th of 30 |
| 7th of 301593 | Elo rating | 156410th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
+19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Suns
−25 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  PHX |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 9–5 | 12–5 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 8–5 | 7–1 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 5–4 |
| Overs–unders | 10–4 | 8–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 5–2 PHX in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.