San Antonio Spurs at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- De'Aaron FoxPoints26
- De'Aaron FoxAssists3
- Julian ChampagnieRebounds12
Suns- Dillon BrooksPoints25
- Devin BookerAssists7
- Mark WilliamsRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game102–111
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter102–111
- Q418.2Devin Booker defensive rebound102–111
- Q421.3Julian Champagnie misses 25-foot three point jumper102–111
- Q426.8Spurs Full timeout102–111
- Q426.8Devin Booker makes free throw 2 of 2102–111
- Q426.8Suns offensive team rebound102–110
- Q426.8Devin Booker misses free throw 1 of 2102–110
- Q426.8De'Aaron Fox personal take foul102–110
- Q435.9Devin Vassell lost ball turnover (Dillon Brooks steals)102–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q37:15Devin Vassell makes 27-foot three point jumper (Harrison Barnes assists)SA 65 – 63 PHX · SA 45% → 55% +10SA 45% → 55%+10 pts
- Q36:03Collin Gillespie makes 27-foot three point jumper (Devin Booker assists)SA 70 – 67 PHX · PHX 32% → 41% +10PHX 32% → 41%+10 pts
- Q34:24Devin Booker makes 26-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Livers assists)SA 73 – 76 PHX · PHX 51% → 62% +10PHX 51% → 62%+10 pts
- Q33:01Keldon Johnson makes 26-foot three point jumper (De'Aaron Fox assists)SA 76 – 80 PHX · SA 25% → 34% +10SA 25% → 34%+10 pts
- Q333.6Devin Booker makes 25-foot three pointer (Jordan Goodwin assists)SA 79 – 86 PHX · PHX 67% → 77% +10PHX 67% → 77%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Suns 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- PHX -1.5
- ML SA +100 / PHX -120
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -2
- PHX 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.7 pts
- PHX: Elo 57.9%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- PHX -109
- SA +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 116.5 – 118.0 PHX
- Posted spread, posted total 234.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1556 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +27 | +2 | SA: Stronger than its recent lineups · PHX: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHX +55 Elo | PHX 57.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 55.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 55.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHX 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 30119.3 | Points scored | 119.013th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30112.3 | Points allowed | 114.07th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+7.1 | Margin | +5.09th of 30 |
| 6th of 30116.9 | Offense rating | 115.810th of 30 |
| 5th of 30110.0 | Defense rating | 110.98th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30101.4 | Pace | 102.118th of 30 |
| 14th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 8–24th of 30 |
| 9th of 303–2 | Road vs home | 7–27th of 30 |
| 24th of 301480 | Opponent Elo | 147325th of 30 |
| 15th of 301511 | Elo rating | 155610th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
+27 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Suns
+2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SA |  PHX |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 9–6 | 11–5 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 6–6 | 6–1 |
| Underdog | 3–0 | 5–4 |
| Overs–unders | 8–7 | 8–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SA 4–4 PHX in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 8.
- Nov 2SA 118 @ PHX 130Picked SA 67%Miss
- Apr 11SA 98 @ PHX 117Picked PHX 67%Hit
- Feb 20PHX 109 @ SA 120Picked PHX 57%Miss
- Dec 3SA 93 @ PHX 104Picked PHX 71%Hit
- Mar 25PHX 102 @ SA 104Picked PHX 74%Miss
- Mar 23PHX 131 @ SA 106Picked PHX 69%Hit
- Nov 2SA 132 @ PHX 121Picked PHX 60%Miss
- Oct 31SA 115 @ PHX 114Picked PHX 64%Miss