Minnesota Timberwolves at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints43
- Julius RandleAssists5
- Rudy GobertRebounds13
Kings- DeMar DeRozanPoints33
- Dennis SchroderAssists9
- Keegan MurrayRebounds14
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game112–117
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime112–117
- OT1.9Russell Westbrook defensive rebound112–117
- OT1.9Donte DiVincenzo misses 28-foot three point jumper112–117
- OT4.3Russell Westbrook personal foul112–117
- OT7.2Malik Monk makes free throw 2 of 2112–117
- OT7.2Malik Monk makes free throw 1 of 2112–116
- OT7.2Donte DiVincenzo personal foul112–115
- OT9.3Donte DiVincenzo makes 24-foot three point jumper (Julius Randle assists)112–115
- OT10.7Naz Reid enters the game for Rudy Gobert109–115
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q41:29DeMar DeRozan makes driving layup (Malik Monk assists)MIN 99 – 98 SAC · SAC 15% → 33% +18SAC 15% → 33%+18 pts
- Q434.4DeMar DeRozan makes free throw 2 of 2MIN 101 – 101 SAC · SAC 28% → 46% +18SAC 28% → 46%+18 pts
- OT2:24Anthony Edwards makes finger roll layupMIN 107 – 107 SAC · MIN 39% → 58% +18MIN 39% → 58%+18 pts
- OT2:00Keegan Murray makes 28-foot three point jumper (Russell Westbrook assists)MIN 107 – 110 SAC · SAC 43% → 72% +29SAC 43% → 72%+29 pts
- OT21.9Anthony Edwards makes 3-foot driving dunk (Julius Randle assists)MIN 109 – 110 SAC · MIN 4% → 30% +26MIN 4% → 30%+26 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 81%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -10.5
- ML MIN -600 / SAC +400
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 76%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -8.5
- MIN 80%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.3 pts
- MIN: Elo 79.7%, market 81.1%
- Fair odds
- MIN -429
- SAC +429 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 123.5 – 113.0 SAC
- Posted spread, posted total 236.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1597 | 1425 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +16 | −86 | MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups · SAC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +238 Elo | MIN 79.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 75.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 76.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 81.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30120.1 | Points scored | 112.025th of 30 |
| 9th of 30114.1 | Points allowed | 124.428th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+6.1 | Margin | −12.428th of 30 |
| 6th of 30116.7 | Offense rating | 108.027th of 30 |
| 9th of 30110.8 | Defense rating | 119.927th of 30 |
| 11th of 30103.0 | Pace | 103.68th of 30 |
| 9th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 2–825th of 30 |
| 8th of 305–3 | Road vs home | 2–526th of 30 |
| 27th of 301467 | Opponent Elo | 15791st of 30 |
| 6th of 301597 | Elo rating | 142524th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
+16 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Kings
−86 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–10 | 6–11 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 6–7 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 0–3 | 5–9 |
| Overs–unders | 8–8 | 9–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 5–4 SAC in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.
- Nov 14SAC 110 @ MIN 124Picked MIN 83%Hit
- Nov 9MIN 144 @ SAC 117Picked MIN 64%Hit
- Feb 3SAC 116 @ MIN 114Picked MIN 63%Miss
- Nov 27SAC 115 @ MIN 104Picked MIN 57%Miss
- Nov 15MIN 130 @ SAC 126Picked MIN 53%Hit
- Oct 24MIN 117 @ SAC 115Picked SAC 51%Miss
- Mar 1SAC 124 @ MIN 120Picked MIN 76%Miss
- Dec 23MIN 110 @ SAC 98Picked MIN 53%Hit