Sacramento Kings at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Zach LaVinePoints34
- Russell WestbrookAssists14
- Russell WestbrookRebounds12
Jazz- Keyonte GeorgePoints31
- Jusuf NurkicAssists9
- Jusuf NurkicRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game119–128
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter119–128
- Q40.0Lauri Markkanen defensive rebound119–128
- Q40.0Maxime Raynaud misses driving layup119–128
- Q43.8Keyonte George makes free throw 2 of 2119–128
- Q43.8Keyonte George makes free throw 1 of 2119–127
- Q43.8Russell Westbrook personal take foul119–126
- Q46.9Maxime Raynaud makes 25-foot three point jumper (Russell Westbrook assists)119–126
- Q410.6Lauri Markkanen makes free throw 2 of 2116–126
- Q410.6Lauri Markkanen makes free throw 1 of 2116–125
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q21:58Zach LaVine makes 24-foot three point jumper (Keegan Murray assists)SAC 51 – 55 UTAH · SAC 27% → 35% +7SAC 27% → 35%+7 pts
- Q243.9Lauri Markkanen makes 23-foot three point jumper (Keyonte George assists)SAC 51 – 58 UTAH · UTAH 66% → 73% +8UTAH 66% → 73%+8 pts
- Q37:16Keegan Murray makes 26-foot three point jumper (DeMar DeRozan assists)SAC 65 – 67 UTAH · SAC 31% → 40% +9SAC 31% → 40%+9 pts
- Q36:51Keyonte George makes 25-foot three point jumper (Lauri Markkanen assists)SAC 65 – 70 UTAH · UTAH 60% → 70% +9UTAH 60% → 70%+9 pts
- Q36:01Keyonte George makes 25-foot three point jumper (Svi Mykhailiuk assists)SAC 67 – 73 UTAH · UTAH 64% → 73% +9UTAH 64% → 73%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jazz 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- UTAH -2.5
- ML SAC +120 / UTAH -140
- Pre-line forecast
- UTAH 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTAH -3
- UTAH 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.2 pts
- UTAH: Elo 62.4%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- UTAH -128
- SAC +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 120.0 – 122.5 UTAH
- Posted spread, posted total 242.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1433 | 1372 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −77 | +24 | SAC: Weaker than its recent lineups · UTAH: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | SAC crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | UTAH +88 Elo | UTAH 62.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTAH 55.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTAH 56.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | UTAH 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SAC | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30111.6 | Points scored | 118.114th of 30 |
| 27th of 30123.1 | Points allowed | 125.529th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−11.4 | Margin | −7.525th of 30 |
| 27th of 30107.6 | Offense rating | 111.323rd of 30 |
| 26th of 30118.6 | Defense rating | 118.325th of 30 |
| 9th of 30103.0 | Pace | 104.05th of 30 |
| 22nd of 302–8 | Last 10 | 2–822nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 302–8 | Road vs home | 4–520th of 30 |
| 1st of 301576 | Opponent Elo | 15313rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 301433 | Elo rating | 137226th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
−77 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Jazz
+24 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SAC |  UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–12 | 9–8 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 1–1 |
| Underdog | 6–10 | 8–7 |
| Overs–unders | 9–10 | 10–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SAC 8–0 UTAH in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 8.
- Oct 24UTAH 104 @ SAC 105Picked SAC 67%Hit
- Feb 26SAC 118 @ UTAH 101Picked SAC 77%Hit
- Dec 8UTAH 97 @ SAC 141Picked SAC 83%Hit
- Nov 16UTAH 117 @ SAC 121Picked SAC 71%Hit
- Oct 29SAC 113 @ UTAH 96Picked SAC 69%Hit
- Mar 31UTAH 106 @ SAC 127Picked SAC 75%Hit
- Dec 16UTAH 104 @ SAC 125Picked SAC 58%Hit
- Oct 25SAC 130 @ UTAH 114Picked UTAH 57%Miss