Utah Jazz at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jazz- Keyonte GeorgePoints28
- Keyonte GeorgeAssists7
- Kyle FilipowskiRebounds9
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints31
- Gary Payton IIAssists8
- Jimmy Butler IIIRebounds6
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game117–134
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter117–134
- Q417.4Brice Sensabaugh makes two point shot117–134
- Q422.3Pat Spencer bad pass (Brice Sensabaugh steals)115–134
- Q443.7Kyle Filipowski makes tip shot115–134
- Q443.7Kyle Filipowski offensive rebound113–134
- Q446.1Brice Sensabaugh misses 23-foot three point jumper113–134
- Q458.4Buddy Hield makes layup (Gui Santos assists)113–134
- Q41:16Isaiah Collier makes driving layup113–132
- Q41:29Gui Santos kicked ball violation111–132
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q12:07Gui Santos makes 24-foot three point jumper (Buddy Hield assists)UTAH 26 – 22 GS · GS 70% → 76% +6GS 70% → 76%+6 pts
- Q11:53Keyonte George makes 25-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Collier assists)UTAH 29 – 22 GS · UTAH 24% → 30% +6UTAH 24% → 30%+6 pts
- Q14.2Brice Sensabaugh makes 23-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Collier assists)UTAH 35 – 26 GS · UTAH 29% → 35% +6UTAH 29% → 35%+6 pts
- Q211:00Will Richard makes 23-foot three point shot (Jimmy Butler III assists)UTAH 35 – 29 GS · GS 64% → 70% +7GS 64% → 70%+7 pts
- Q210:35Moses Moody makes 25-foot three point jumper (Pat Spencer assists)UTAH 35 – 32 GS · GS 70% → 76% +6GS 70% → 76%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Warriors 85%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- GS -13.5
- ML UTAH +550 / GS -900
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 86%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -9
- GS 81%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.5 pts
- GS: Elo 80.9%, market 85.4%
- Fair odds
- GS -585
- UTAH +585 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 113.0 – 126.5 GS
- Posted spread, posted total 239.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1376 | 1532 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | UTAH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −2 | +17 | UTAH: Missing Kevin Love −9 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · GS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GS +250 Elo | GS 80.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 86.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 85.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GS 85.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30118.1 | Points scored | 114.821st of 30 |
| 29th of 30125.0 | Points allowed | 114.913th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−6.9 | Margin | −0.117th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30111.4 | Offense rating | 111.522nd of 30 |
| 25th of 30117.9 | Defense rating | 111.611th of 30 |
| 7th of 30103.9 | Pace | 102.116th of 30 |
| 18th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–616th of 30 |
| 26th of 301–6 | Road vs home | 5–15th of 30 |
| 4th of 301534 | Opponent Elo | 15187th of 30 |
| 26th of 301376 | Elo rating | 153212th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Jazz
−2 Elo- Kevin Love rest−9 Elo
Warriors
+17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTAH |  GS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 9–7 | 9–9 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 6–5 |
| Underdog | 8–6 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders | 9–7 | 12–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTAH 1–6 GS in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.