Portland Trail Blazers at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Caleb LovePoints26
- Deni AvdijaAssists13
- Robert Williams IIIRebounds11
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints38
- Draymond GreenAssists7
- Jimmy Butler IIIRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game127–123
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter127–123
- Q40.1Deni Avdija defensive rebound127–123
- Q42.4Stephen Curry misses 28-foot three point jumper127–123
- Q44.2Draymond Green offensive rebound127–123
- Q48.4Stephen Curry misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot127–123
- Q49.8Moses Moody enters the game for Quinten Post127–123
- Q49.8Brandin Podziemski enters the game for Trayce Jackson-Davis127–123
- Q49.8Warriors Full timeout127–123
- Q49.8Deni Avdija makes free throw 2 of 2127–123
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:00Stephen Curry makes 23-foot three point step back jumpshotPOR 117 – 116 GS · GS 19% → 46% +27GS 19% → 46%+27 pts
- Q41:46Deni Avdija makes 11-foot two point shotPOR 119 – 116 GS · POR 55% → 75% +20POR 55% → 75%+20 pts
- Q41:43Gary Payton II makes 3-foot layup (Brandin Podziemski assists)POR 119 – 118 GS · GS 25% → 45% +20GS 25% → 45%+20 pts
- Q41:27Caleb Love makes 27-foot three point jumper (Deni Avdija assists)POR 122 – 118 GS · POR 57% → 86% +29POR 57% → 86%+29 pts
- Q429.2Caleb Love makes 27-foot three point jumper (Deni Avdija assists)POR 125 – 120 GS · POR 83% → >99% +16POR 83% → >99%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Warriors 77%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- GS -9.5
- ML POR +320 / GS -425
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -3.5
- GS 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −12.9 pts
- GS: Elo 64.4%, market 77.3%
- Fair odds
- GS -340
- POR +340 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 113.5 – 123.0 GS
- Posted spread, posted total 236.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1447 | 1540 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +22 | −4 | POR: Missing Damian Lillard −46, Jrue Holiday −20, Shaedon Sharpe −9 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · GS: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GS +103 Elo | GS 64.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 68.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 68.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GS 77.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30120.7 | Points scored | 114.421st of 30 |
| 25th of 30122.5 | Points allowed | 114.210th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−1.7 | Margin | +0.217th of 30 |
| 18th of 30113.5 | Offense rating | 110.923rd of 30 |
| 20th of 30115.1 | Defense rating | 110.710th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30105.7 | Pace | 102.217th of 30 |
| 19th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 16th of 303–5 | Road vs home | 5–01st of 30 |
| 4th of 301534 | Opponent Elo | 15217th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301447 | Elo rating | 154012th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
+22 Elo- Damian Lillard left achilles tendon−46 Elo
- Jrue Holiday right calf strain−20 Elo
- Shaedon Sharpe right calf strain−9 Elo
Warriors
−4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  POR |  GS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–8 | 9–8 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–6 | 6–4 |
| Underdog | 6–2 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders | 11–4 | 11–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
POR 1–7 GS in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 8.
- Oct 24GS 119 @ POR 139Picked GS 58%Miss
- Apr 11GS 103 @ POR 86Picked GS 89%Hit
- Mar 10POR 120 @ GS 130Picked GS 84%Hit
- Oct 23GS 140 @ POR 104Picked GS 71%Hit
- Apr 11GS 100 @ POR 92Picked GS 77%Hit
- Dec 23POR 106 @ GS 126Picked GS 65%Hit
- Dec 17GS 118 @ POR 114Picked GS 56%Hit
- Dec 6POR 106 @ GS 110Picked GS 63%Hit