San Antonio Spurs at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors POR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- De'Aaron FoxPoints37
- De'Aaron FoxAssists8
- Julian ChampagnieRebounds11
Trail Blazers- Deni AvdijaPoints37
- Deni AvdijaAssists8
- Donovan ClinganRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game115–102
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter115–102
- Q44.7Caleb Love lost ball turnover (De'Aaron Fox steals)115–102
- Q414.9Yang Hansen defensive rebound115–102
- Q418.2Devin Vassell misses 9-foot two point shot115–102
- Q425.3Harrison Barnes defensive rebound115–102
- Q428.0Rayan Rupert misses two point shot115–102
- Q431.8Rayan Rupert defensive rebound115–102
- Q431.8Luke Kornet misses tip shot115–102
- Q435.0Luke Kornet offensive rebound115–102
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q31:32Deni Avdija makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotSA 85 – 80 POR · POR 21% → 30% +9POR 21% → 30%+9 pts
- Q31:04Devin Vassell makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotSA 88 – 80 POR · SA 70% → 80% +9SA 70% → 80%+9 pts
- Q347.2Deni Avdija makes 25-foot three pointerSA 88 – 83 POR · POR 20% → 30% +10POR 20% → 30%+10 pts
- Q31.6Devin Vassell makes 26-foot three pointerSA 91 – 86 POR · SA 59% → 71% +11SA 59% → 71%+11 pts
- Q410:46Deni Avdija makes 24-foot three pointer (Donovan Clingan assists)SA 93 – 91 POR · POR 28% → 40% +12POR 28% → 40%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Spurs 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- POR -1.5
- ML SA -120 / POR +100
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -0.5
- SA 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.6 pts
- SA: Elo 51.6%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- SA -109
- POR +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 119.0 – 120.5 POR
- Posted spread, posted total 239.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1463 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +30 | +23 | SA: Stronger than its recent lineups · POR: Missing Damian Lillard −40, Jrue Holiday −17 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SA +11 Elo | SA 51.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SA 54.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SA 54.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SA 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30118.3 | Points scored | 119.38th of 30 |
| 4th of 30112.2 | Points allowed | 121.424th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+6.1 | Margin | −2.118th of 30 |
| 9th of 30116.1 | Offense rating | 113.517th of 30 |
| 7th of 30110.2 | Defense rating | 115.420th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30101.2 | Pace | 104.53rd of 30 |
| 13th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–719th of 30 |
| 9th of 303–3 | Road vs home | 3–420th of 30 |
| 21st of 301486 | Opponent Elo | 15432nd of 30 |
| 15th of 301504 | Elo rating | 146321st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
+30 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Trail Blazers
+23 Elo- Damian Lillard left achilles rehab−40 Elo
- Jrue Holiday right calf strain−17 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SA |  POR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 9–7 | 9–9 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 6–6 | 1–6 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 8–3 |
| Overs–unders | 8–8 | 12–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SA 5–2 POR in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 7.