Portland Trail Blazers at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Jerami GrantPoints21
- Yang HansenAssists3
- Donovan ClinganRebounds8
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints37
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists7
- Isaiah HartensteinRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game95–122
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter95–122
- Q423.5Javonte Cooke makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot95–122
- Q431.6Brooks Barnhizer makes 1-foot dunk (Branden Carlson assists)92–122
- Q443.9Caleb Love makes 1-foot two point shot92–120
- Q450.0Yang Hansen defensive rebound90–120
- Q453.5Isaiah Joe misses 24-foot three point jumper90–120
- Q41:04Rayan Rupert makes 25-foot three pointer90–120
- Q41:10Rayan Rupert defensive rebound87–120
- Q41:14Chris Youngblood misses 23-foot three point jumper87–120
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:40Jerami Grant makes 22-foot three point jumper (Deni Avdija assists)POR 3 – 4 OKC · POR 7% → 10% +2POR 7% → 10%+2 pts
- Q110:01Toumani Camara makes dunkPOR 5 – 4 OKC · POR 10% → 12% +2POR 10% → 12%+2 pts
- Q19:31Donovan Clingan makes 26-foot three point jumper (Sidy Cissoko assists)POR 8 – 4 OKC · POR 12% → 16% +4POR 12% → 16%+4 pts
- Q19:14Luguentz Dort makes 24-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Hartenstein assists)POR 8 – 7 OKC · OKC 84% → 88% +4OKC 84% → 88%+4 pts
- Q18:42Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 9-foot step back jumpshotPOR 8 – 9 OKC · OKC 88% → 90% +2OKC 88% → 90%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 89%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -16.5
- ML POR +800 / OKC -1600
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 88%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -10.5
- OKC 84%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.1 pts
- OKC: Elo 84.3%, market 89.4%
- Fair odds
- OKC -847
- POR +847 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 108.5 – 125.0 OKC
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1456 | 1727 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +27 | 0 | POR: Missing Damian Lillard −47, Jrue Holiday −20, Shaedon Sharpe −9 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · OKC: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | −12 | POR crossed 2 time zones and OKC crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | OKC +292 Elo | OKC 84.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 88.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 88.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 89.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30121.1 | Points scored | 122.64th of 30 |
| 25th of 30122.5 | Points allowed | 106.31st of 30 |
| 18th of 30−1.4 | Margin | +16.41st of 30 |
| 17th of 30114.2 | Offense rating | 118.33rd of 30 |
| 20th of 30115.5 | Defense rating | 102.61st of 30 |
| 2nd of 30105.3 | Pace | 101.125th of 30 |
| 19th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 9–12nd of 30 |
| 13th of 304–5 | Road vs home | 7–01st of 30 |
| 3rd of 301533 | Opponent Elo | 143630th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301456 | Elo rating | 17271st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
+27 Elo- Damian Lillard left achilles tendon−47 Elo
- Jrue Holiday right calf strain−20 Elo
- Shaedon Sharpe right calf strain−9 Elo
- Robert Williams III left knee injury management−6 Elo
Thunder
0 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  POR |  OKC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–8 | 9–8 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 1–6 | 9–8 |
| Underdog | 7–2 | — |
| Overs–unders | 12–4 | 9–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
POR 1–8 OKC in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 9.
- Nov 5OKC 119 @ POR 121Picked OKC 60%Miss
- Mar 7POR 89 @ OKC 107Picked OKC 53%Hit
- Jan 26OKC 118 @ POR 108Picked OKC 86%Hit
- Nov 20POR 99 @ OKC 109Picked OKC 85%Hit
- Nov 1OKC 137 @ POR 114Picked OKC 84%Hit
- Mar 6OKC 128 @ POR 120Picked OKC 67%Hit
- Jan 23POR 109 @ OKC 111Picked OKC 84%Hit
- Jan 11POR 77 @ OKC 139Picked OKC 80%Hit