Portland Trail Blazers at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Jerami GrantPoints35
- Deni AvdijaAssists5
- Donovan ClinganRebounds11
Bucks- Bobby PortisPoints22
- Ryan RollinsAssists7
- Myles TurnerRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game115–103
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter115–103
- Q45.0Thanasis Antetokounmpo makes free throw 1 of 1115–103
- Q45.0Yang Hansen shooting foul115–102
- Q45.0Thanasis Antetokounmpo makes two point shot115–102
- Q45.0Thanasis Antetokounmpo offensive rebound115–100
- Q46.6Mark Sears misses 29-foot three point step back jumpshot115–100
- Q415.7shot clock turnover115–100
- Q439.6Duop Reath defensive rebound115–100
- Q441.2Gary Trent Jr. misses free throw 2 of 2115–100
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q29:06Bobby Portis makes 27-foot three point jumper (Cole Anthony assists)POR 34 – 35 MIL · MIL 46% → 53% +7MIL 46% → 53%+7 pts
- Q28:50Deni Avdija makes 24-foot three point jumper (Donovan Clingan assists)POR 37 – 35 MIL · POR 47% → 54% +8POR 47% → 54%+8 pts
- Q28:01Bobby Portis makes 26-foot three point jumper (Gary Harris assists)POR 39 – 40 MIL · MIL 46% → 53% +8MIL 46% → 53%+8 pts
- Q27:35Deni Avdija makes 26-foot three point jumper (Sidy Cissoko assists)POR 42 – 40 MIL · POR 47% → 54% +8POR 47% → 54%+8 pts
- Q26:03Toumani Camara makes 25-foot three point jumper (Sidy Cissoko assists)POR 48 – 42 MIL · POR 57% → 65% +8POR 57% → 65%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bucks 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- MIL -1.5
- ML POR -105 / MIL -115
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- MIL 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.1 pts
- MIL: Elo 51.0%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- MIL -104
- POR +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 114.0 – 115.5 MIL
- Posted spread, posted total 229.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1451 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | POR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +12 | −101 | POR: Missing Damian Lillard −47, Jrue Holiday −22, Shaedon Sharpe −10 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · MIL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +7 Elo | MIL 51.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 53.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 30119.6 | Points scored | 117.318th of 30 |
| 25th of 30122.5 | Points allowed | 119.621st of 30 |
| 20th of 30−2.9 | Margin | −2.318th of 30 |
| 20th of 30113.2 | Offense rating | 113.917th of 30 |
| 21st of 30115.9 | Defense rating | 116.122nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30104.9 | Pace | 101.721st of 30 |
| 19th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–719th of 30 |
| 16th of 304–6 | Road vs home | 5–518th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301545 | Opponent Elo | 148324th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301451 | Elo rating | 149517th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
+12 Elo- Damian Lillard left achilles tendon−47 Elo
- Jrue Holiday right calf strain−22 Elo
- Shaedon Sharpe right calf strain−10 Elo
Bucks
−101 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  POR |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–9 | 7–10 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 1–6 | 3–5 |
| Underdog | 7–3 | 4–5 |
| Overs–unders | 12–5 | 10–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
POR 3–1 MIL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.