Detroit Pistons at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints29
- Cade CunninghamAssists10
- Cade CunninghamRebounds8
Bucks- Ryan RollinsPoints24
- Ryan RollinsAssists7
- Bobby PortisRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game129–116
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter129–116
- Q41.5Daniss Jenkins bad pass (Cole Anthony steals)129–116
- Q424.1Amir Coffey makes 25-foot three point shot (Mark Sears assists)129–116
- Q427.2Mark Sears defensive rebound129–113
- Q431.5Thanasis Antetokounmpo blocks Ausar Thompson's driving layup129–113
- Q446.2Paul Reed defensive rebound129–113
- Q450.5Mark Sears misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot129–113
- Q457.4Pete Nance defensive rebound129–113
- Q41:00Paul Reed misses 2-foot two point shot129–113
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:41Bobby Portis makes 25-foot three point jumper (Ryan Rollins assists)DET 0 – 3 MIL · MIL 26% → 31% +5MIL 26% → 31%+5 pts
- Q11:37Bobby Portis makes 27-foot three point jumper (Andre Jackson Jr. assists)DET 25 – 24 MIL · MIL 21% → 26% +5MIL 21% → 26%+5 pts
- Q10.0Duncan Robinson makes 25-foot three pointer (Cade Cunningham assists)DET 30 – 26 MIL · DET 73% → 79% +6DET 73% → 79%+6 pts
- Q29:41Daniss Jenkins makes 26-foot three point jumper (Ronald Holland II assists)DET 35 – 33 MIL · DET 68% → 75% +6DET 68% → 75%+6 pts
- Q23:29Kyle Kuzma makes 24-foot three point jumper (Myles Turner assists)DET 52 – 47 MIL · MIL 15% → 20% +5MIL 15% → 20%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pistons 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- DET -7.5
- ML DET -340 / MIL +270
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -6.5
- DET 73%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.8 pts
- DET: Elo 73.3%, market 74.1%
- Fair odds
- DET -286
- MIL +286 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 116.5 – 109.0 MIL
- Posted spread, posted total 225.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1572 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +40 | −100 | DET: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +175 Elo | DET 73.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 67.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 68.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 74.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30118.9 | Points scored | 117.419th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30112.1 | Points allowed | 119.020th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+6.7 | Margin | −1.619th of 30 |
| 11th of 30114.9 | Offense rating | 113.819th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30108.4 | Defense rating | 115.420th of 30 |
| 12th of 30102.9 | Pace | 101.720th of 30 |
| 1st of 3010–0 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 2nd of 305–1 | Road vs home | 5–417th of 30 |
| 26th of 301471 | Opponent Elo | 147624th of 30 |
| 9th of 301572 | Elo rating | 150017th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
+40 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bucks
−100 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 11–4 | 7–9 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 8–3 | 3–5 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders | 8–7 | 9–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 0–8 MIL in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.
- Apr 13DET 133 @ MIL 140Picked DET 77%Miss
- Apr 11MIL 125 @ DET 119Picked DET 60%Miss
- Dec 3MIL 128 @ DET 107Picked MIL 57%Hit
- Nov 13DET 120 @ MIL 127Picked MIL 70%Hit
- Jan 22MIL 122 @ DET 113Picked MIL 76%Hit
- Jan 20MIL 141 @ DET 135Picked MIL 73%Hit
- Dec 16DET 114 @ MIL 146Picked MIL 88%Hit
- Nov 8DET 118 @ MIL 120Picked MIL 61%Hit