Philadelphia 76ers at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Tyrese MaxeyPoints54
- Tyrese MaxeyAssists9
- VJ EdgecombeRebounds10
Bucks- Ryan RollinsPoints32
- Ryan RollinsAssists14
- Myles TurnerRebounds10
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game123–114
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime123–114
- OT12.0Tyrese Maxey makes free throw 2 of 2123–114
- OT12.0Tyrese Maxey makes free throw 1 of 2122–114
- OT12.0AJ Green personal take foul121–114
- OT13.776ers Full timeout121–114
- OT13.7Trendon Watford enters the game for VJ Edgecombe121–114
- OT13.7(00:13.7) [76ers] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL OVERTURNED) [76ers] retain their timeout121–114
- OT13.776ers defensive team rebound121–114
- OT16.6Ryan Rollins misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshot121–114
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:14AJ Green makes 26-foot three pointer (Ryan Rollins assists)PHI 101 – 101 MIL · MIL 26% → 49% +22MIL 26% → 49%+22 pts
- Q42:27Tyrese Maxey makes 23-foot three point jumper (Justin Edwards assists)PHI 104 – 101 MIL · PHI 51% → 76% +25PHI 51% → 76%+25 pts
- Q415.1Myles Turner makes 26-foot three point jumper (Kyle Kuzma assists)PHI 104 – 106 MIL · MIL 23% → 92% +69MIL 23% → 92%+69 pts
- Q47.0Tyrese Maxey makes free throw 2 of 2PHI 106 – 106 MIL · PHI 15% → 50% +36PHI 15% → 50%+36 pts
- OT1:23Quentin Grimes makes 28-foot three pointerPHI 116 – 112 MIL · PHI 63% → 89% +27PHI 63% → 89%+27 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
76ers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.6% of 341 graded games.
- Market
- PHI -1.5
- ML PHI -130 / MIL +110
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -0.5
- PHI 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.5 pts
- PHI: Elo 47.8%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- PHI -119
- MIL +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 112.5 – 111.0 MIL
- Posted spread, posted total 223.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1428 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | PHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +39 | −104 | PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +15 Elo | MIL 52.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 50.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30118.1 | Points scored | 117.617th of 30 |
| 16th of 30116.3 | Points allowed | 118.719th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+1.8 | Margin | −1.119th of 30 |
| 13th of 30114.7 | Offense rating | 114.514th of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.0 | Defense rating | 115.622nd of 30 |
| 18th of 30102.2 | Pace | 101.920th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 11th of 303–3 | Road vs home | 5–314th of 30 |
| 14th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 148422nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 301428 | Elo rating | 151116th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
+39 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bucks
−104 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 10–4 | 7–8 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 3–2 | 3–5 |
| Underdog | 7–2 | 4–3 |
| Overs–unders | 7–7 | 8–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 0–7 MIL in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 7.