San Antonio Spurs at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- Devin VassellPoints35
- De'Aaron FoxAssists12
- Julian ChampagnieRebounds10
Nuggets- Jamal MurrayPoints37
- Nikola JokicAssists10
- Nikola JokicRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game139–136
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter139–136
- Q41.5Spurs Full timeout139–136
- Q41.5Jamal Murray makes 26-foot three pointer139–136
- Q48.2Keldon Johnson makes free throw 2 of 2139–133
- Q48.2Keldon Johnson makes free throw 1 of 2138–133
- Q48.2Nikola Jokic personal take foul137–133
- Q411.2Jamal Murray makes driving layup137–133
- Q419.3Devin Vassell makes free throw 2 of 2137–131
- Q419.3Devin Vassell makes free throw 1 of 2136–131
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q48:01Tim Hardaway Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Spencer Jones assists)SA 111 – 112 DEN · DEN 49% → 64% +15DEN 49% → 64%+15 pts
- Q46:31Keldon Johnson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Dylan Harper assists)SA 117 – 115 DEN · SA 37% → 53% +17SA 37% → 53%+17 pts
- Q43:27Julian Champagnie makes driving layup (Harrison Barnes assists)SA 125 – 122 DEN · SA 52% → 67% +15SA 52% → 67%+15 pts
- Q43:16Cameron Johnson makes 23-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)SA 126 – 125 DEN · DEN 26% → 48% +22DEN 26% → 48%+22 pts
- Q41:25Devin Vassell makes 26-foot three point jumper (Luke Kornet assists)SA 129 – 126 DEN · SA 46% → 79% +33SA 46% → 79%+33 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nuggets 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -7.5
- ML SA +230 / DEN -280
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -4
- DEN 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.7 pts
- DEN: Elo 65.2%, market 70.9%
- Fair odds
- DEN -243
- SA +243 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 115.5 – 123.0 DEN
- Posted spread, posted total 238.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1648 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +30 | −42 | SA: Stronger than its recent lineups · DEN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | SA crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DEN +109 Elo | DEN 65.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 71.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 70.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 70.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30118.1 | Points scored | 123.81st of 30 |
| 4th of 30111.6 | Points allowed | 113.88th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+6.5 | Margin | +10.03rd of 30 |
| 8th of 30115.8 | Offense rating | 121.91st of 30 |
| 5th of 30109.5 | Defense rating | 112.014th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30101.4 | Pace | 101.024th of 30 |
| 10th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 8–23rd of 30 |
| 9th of 304–3 | Road vs home | 6–27th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301483 | Opponent Elo | 148721st of 30 |
| 15th of 301515 | Elo rating | 16482nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
+30 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nuggets
−42 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SA |  DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 10–7 | 11–6 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 6–6 | 10–5 |
| Underdog | 4–1 | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 8–9 | 10–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SA 3–4 DEN in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.