San Antonio Spurs at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- De'Aaron FoxPoints25
- De'Aaron FoxAssists4
- Keldon JohnsonRebounds8
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints32
- Julius RandleAssists12
- Rudy GobertRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game112–125
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter112–125
- Q48.9shot clock turnover112–125
- Q432.9Bismack Biyombo makes free throw 2 of 2112–125
- Q432.9Spurs offensive team rebound111–125
- Q432.9Bismack Biyombo misses free throw 1 of 2111–125
- Q432.9Leonard Miller loose ball foul111–125
- Q432.9Spurs offensive team rebound111–125
- Q434.8Lindy Waters III misses 24-foot three point jumper111–125
- Q439.7Bones Hyland personal foul111–125
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q330.6Keldon Johnson makes 24-foot three point jumper (De'Aaron Fox assists)SA 93 – 87 MIN · SA 55% → 67% +12SA 55% → 67%+12 pts
- Q411:18Naz Reid makes 25-foot three point jumper (Mike Conley assists)SA 93 – 94 MIN · MIN 48% → 61% +13MIN 48% → 61%+13 pts
- Q410:49Donte DiVincenzo makes 23-foot three point jumper (Julius Randle assists)SA 94 – 97 MIN · MIN 57% → 69% +12MIN 57% → 69%+12 pts
- Q49:02Naz Reid makes 23-foot three point jumper (Julius Randle assists)SA 96 – 100 MIN · MIN 61% → 74% +13MIN 61% → 74%+13 pts
- Q48:28Donte DiVincenzo makes 28-foot three point jumper (Julius Randle assists)SA 98 – 103 MIN · MIN 65% → 78% +12MIN 65% → 78%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -4.5
- ML SA +165 / MIN -195
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -2
- MIN 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.5 pts
- MIN: Elo 57.1%, market 63.7%
- Fair odds
- MIN -175
- SA +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 114.5 – 119.0 MIN
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1584 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | MIN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +32 | +12 | SA: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | SA crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIN +50 Elo | MIN 57.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 62.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 62.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 63.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30119.2 | Points scored | 118.812th of 30 |
| 5th of 30112.9 | Points allowed | 114.211th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+6.3 | Margin | +4.610th of 30 |
| 7th of 30116.7 | Offense rating | 115.59th of 30 |
| 7th of 30110.6 | Defense rating | 111.010th of 30 |
| 18th of 30101.6 | Pace | 102.415th of 30 |
| 7th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–413th of 30 |
| 7th of 305–3 | Road vs home | 6–312th of 30 |
| 19th of 301490 | Opponent Elo | 149118th of 30 |
| 14th of 301523 | Elo rating | 15847th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
+32 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Timberwolves
+12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SA |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 11–7 | 7–12 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 6–6 | 6–9 |
| Underdog | 5–1 | 1–3 |
| Overs–unders | 9–9 | 9–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SA 2–6 MIN in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.
- Mar 9SA 124 @ MIN 141Picked MIN 82%Hit
- Dec 29SA 110 @ MIN 112Picked MIN 67%Hit
- Dec 15MIN 106 @ SA 92Picked MIN 62%Hit
- Nov 2MIN 103 @ SA 113Picked MIN 60%Miss
- Feb 27SA 105 @ MIN 114Picked MIN 80%Hit
- Jan 27MIN 112 @ SA 113Picked MIN 71%Miss
- Dec 6SA 94 @ MIN 102Picked MIN 81%Hit
- Nov 10MIN 117 @ SA 110Picked MIN 61%Hit