Boston Celtics at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Jaylen BrownPoints41
- Jaylen BrownAssists7
- Neemias QuetaRebounds18
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints39
- Donte DiVincenzoAssists8
- Julius RandleRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game115–119
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter115–119
- Q40.0(00:00) [Celtics] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (CALL STANDS)115–119
- Q40.0Sam Hauser makes 24-foot three point jumper (Payton Pritchard assists)115–119
- Q46.2Derrick White defensive rebound112–119
- Q46.2Donte DiVincenzo misses free throw 2 of 2112–119
- Q46.2Donte DiVincenzo makes free throw 1 of 2112–119
- Q46.2Sam Hauser personal take foul112–118
- Q48.0Donte DiVincenzo defensive rebound112–118
- Q410.2Payton Pritchard misses 28-foot three point step back jumpshot112–118
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q32:47Naz Reid makes 26-foot three point jumper (Anthony Edwards assists)BOS 88 – 89 MIN · MIN 52% → 63% +11MIN 52% → 63%+11 pts
- Q45:51Anthony Edwards makes 25-foot three pointer (Rudy Gobert assists)BOS 98 – 104 MIN · MIN 73% → 85% +13MIN 73% → 85%+13 pts
- Q42:08Derrick White makes 25-foot three pointer (Jaylen Brown assists)BOS 107 – 110 MIN · BOS 6% → 20% +14BOS 6% → 20%+14 pts
- Q41:38Jaylen Brown makes 25-foot three pointerBOS 110 – 110 MIN · BOS 18% → 47% +29BOS 18% → 47%+29 pts
- Q41:12Mike Conley makes 23-foot three point jumper (Julius Randle assists)BOS 110 – 113 MIN · MIN 53% → 85% +33MIN 53% → 85%+33 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -5.5
- ML BOS +190 / MIN -225
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -2
- MIN 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.3 pts
- MIN: Elo 58.4%, market 66.8%
- Fair odds
- MIN -201
- BOS +201 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 112.0 – 117.5 MIN
- Posted spread, posted total 229.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1613 | 1579 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −43 | +13 | BOS: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +59 Elo | MIN 58.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 61.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 60.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 66.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30114.8 | Points scored | 118.812th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30110.2 | Points allowed | 114.210th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+4.6 | Margin | +4.710th of 30 |
| 7th of 30116.6 | Offense rating | 115.310th of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.0 | Defense rating | 110.811th of 30 |
| 28th of 3098.6 | Pace | 102.513th of 30 |
| 8th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–414th of 30 |
| 10th of 304–4 | Road vs home | 5–315th of 30 |
| 28th of 301472 | Opponent Elo | 148224th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301613 | Elo rating | 15798th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
−43 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Timberwolves
+13 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–10 | 7–11 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–6 | 6–8 |
| Underdog | 3–4 | 1–3 |
| Overs–unders | 7–11 | 8–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 3–1 MIN in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.