Orlando Magic at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Jett HowardPoints30
- Tyus JonesAssists6
- Franz WagnerRebounds8
Celtics- Jaylen BrownPoints35
- Jaylen BrownAssists8
- Derrick WhiteRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game129–138
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter129–138
- Q48.9Payton Pritchard defensive rebound129–138
- Q411.5Derrick White blocks Jase Richardson 's 1-foot driving layup129–138
- Q416.8Derrick White makes free throw 2 of 2129–138
- Q416.8Derrick White makes free throw 1 of 2129–137
- Q416.8Noah Penda personal take foul129–136
- Q420.0Jett Howard makes driving layup (Tyus Jones assists)129–136
- Q423.3Magic Full timeout127–136
- Q423.3Payton Pritchard makes 1-foot layup (Derrick White assists)127–136
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:11Orlando Robinson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tristan da Silva assists)ORL 11 – 11 BOS · ORL 32% → 38% +6ORL 32% → 38%+6 pts
- Q15:47Sam Hauser makes 26-foot three pointer (Payton Pritchard assists)ORL 15 – 16 BOS · BOS 57% → 64% +6BOS 57% → 64%+6 pts
- Q15:23Sam Hauser makes 23-foot three point jumper (Payton Pritchard assists)ORL 15 – 19 BOS · BOS 64% → 70% +6BOS 64% → 70%+6 pts
- Q211:25Desmond Bane makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot (Tyus Jones assists)ORL 30 – 35 BOS · ORL 23% → 28% +6ORL 23% → 28%+6 pts
- Q25:11Josh Minott makes 28-foot three point jumper (Payton Pritchard assists)ORL 44 – 54 BOS · BOS 76% → 82% +6BOS 76% → 82%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -4.5
- ML ORL +155 / BOS -185
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -3.5
- BOS 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.3 pts
- BOS: Elo 63.6%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- BOS -166
- ORL +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 109.5 – 114.0 BOS
- Posted spread, posted total 223.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1535 | 1600 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | ORL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | 0 | −43 | ORL: Missing Goga Bitadze −12 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · BOS: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +97 Elo | BOS 63.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 60.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 61.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30117.6 | Points scored | 113.222nd of 30 |
| 6th of 30113.6 | Points allowed | 108.82nd of 30 |
| 13th of 30+4.1 | Margin | +4.411th of 30 |
| 15th of 30114.5 | Offense rating | 115.011th of 30 |
| 7th of 30110.5 | Defense rating | 110.58th of 30 |
| 18th of 30102.1 | Pace | 98.629th of 30 |
| 8th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 15th of 303–4 | Road vs home | 4–417th of 30 |
| 18th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 146129th of 30 |
| 12th of 301535 | Elo rating | 16004th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
0 Elo- Goga Bitadze left ankle injury−12 Elo
Celtics
−43 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ORL |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 9–8 | 6–10 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 6–8 | 4–6 |
| Underdog | 3–0 | 2–4 |
| Overs–unders | 10–7 | 6–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ORL 5–8 BOS in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 13.
- Nov 9BOS 111 @ ORL 107Picked ORL 59%Miss
- Nov 7BOS 110 @ ORL 123Picked ORL 60%Hit
- Apr 29ORL 89 @ BOS 120PlayoffsPicked BOS 84%Hit
- Apr 27BOS 107 @ ORL 98PlayoffsPicked BOS 73%Hit
- Apr 25BOS 93 @ ORL 95PlayoffsPicked BOS 67%Miss
- Apr 23ORL 100 @ BOS 109PlayoffsPicked BOS 80%Hit
- Apr 20ORL 86 @ BOS 103PlayoffsPicked BOS 85%Hit
- Apr 9BOS 76 @ ORL 96Picked ORL 73%Hit