New York Knicks at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints33
- Jalen BrunsonAssists11
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds8
Magic- Franz WagnerPoints37
- Franz WagnerAssists7
- Goga BitadzeRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game121–133
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter121–133
- Q43.3shot clock turnover121–133
- Q427.4Ariel Hukporti makes free throw 2 of 2121–133
- Q427.4Knicks offensive team rebound120–133
- Q427.4Ariel Hukporti misses free throw 1 of 2120–133
- Q427.4Jett Howard shooting foul120–133
- Q435.9Ariel Hukporti defensive rebound120–133
- Q439.7Noah Penda misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot120–133
- Q445.6Noah Penda offensive rebound120–133
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q38:53Wendell Carter Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Desmond Bane assists)NY 75 – 76 ORL · ORL 45% → 55% +9ORL 45% → 55%+9 pts
- Q37:36Karl-Anthony Towns makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)NY 80 – 80 ORL · NY 39% → 49% +10NY 39% → 49%+10 pts
- Q31:13Wendell Carter Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Desmond Bane assists)NY 91 – 93 ORL · ORL 47% → 59% +12ORL 47% → 59%+12 pts
- Q332.1Desmond Bane makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshotNY 93 – 96 ORL · ORL 51% → 63% +12ORL 51% → 63%+12 pts
- Q49:26Anthony Black makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tyus Jones assists)NY 100 – 107 ORL · ORL 69% → 80% +11ORL 69% → 80%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Magic 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- ORL -1.5
- ML NY +100 / ORL -120
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- ORL 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.9 pts
- ORL: Elo 50.3%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- ORL -109
- NY +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 114.5 – 116.0 ORL
- Posted spread, posted total 230.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1589 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +2 | +22 | NY: Usual rotation · ORL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | NY crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | ORL +2 Elo | ORL 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 53.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 52.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ORL 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30120.8 | Points scored | 116.719th of 30 |
| 12th of 30114.9 | Points allowed | 113.17th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+5.9 | Margin | +3.613th of 30 |
| 5th of 30117.8 | Offense rating | 113.320th of 30 |
| 15th of 30112.1 | Defense rating | 109.95th of 30 |
| 15th of 30102.5 | Pace | 102.216th of 30 |
| 8th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–38th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301–4 | Road vs home | 6–312th of 30 |
| 17th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 149218th of 30 |
| 8th of 301589 | Elo rating | 152413th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
+2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Magic
+22 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NY |  ORL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–6 | 8–8 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 7–5 | 5–8 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 3–0 |
| Overs–unders | 9–5 | 9–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NY 4–5 ORL in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.
- Nov 12ORL 124 @ NY 107Picked NY 62%Miss
- Jan 6ORL 103 @ NY 94Picked NY 80%Miss
- Dec 27NY 108 @ ORL 85Picked NY 68%Hit
- Dec 15NY 100 @ ORL 91Picked NY 61%Hit
- Dec 3ORL 106 @ NY 121Picked NY 65%Hit
- Mar 8ORL 74 @ NY 98Picked ORL 56%Miss
- Feb 14NY 100 @ ORL 118Picked ORL 55%Hit
- Jan 15ORL 98 @ NY 94Picked NY 63%Miss