Brooklyn Nets at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- Michael Porter Jr.Points33
- Nic ClaxtonAssists12
- Nic ClaxtonRebounds11
Celtics- Jaylen BrownPoints26
- Jaylen BrownAssists4
- Neemias QuetaRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–105
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–105
- Q40.3Baylor Scheierman defensive rebound113–105
- Q41.5Noah Clowney misses 30-foot three point jumper113–105
- Q426.8Payton Pritchard makes two point shot113–105
- Q434.0Jordan Walsh defensive rebound113–103
- Q436.0Michael Porter Jr. misses 26-foot three point jumper113–103
- Q452.7Baylor Scheierman makes 23-foot three point jumper (Payton Pritchard assists)113–103
- Q41:00Michael Porter Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2113–100
- Q41:00Josh Minott enters the game for Derrick White112–100
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:52Anfernee Simons makes 3-foot two point shotBKN 96 – 92 BOS · BOS 29% → 40% +11BOS 29% → 40%+11 pts
- Q45:16Jordan Walsh makes dunkBKN 96 – 94 BOS · BOS 38% → 50% +12BOS 38% → 50%+12 pts
- Q45:04Egor Demin makes 26-foot three pointerBKN 99 – 94 BOS · BKN 50% → 69% +18BKN 50% → 69%+18 pts
- Q44:03Michael Porter Jr. makes driving layup (Nic Claxton assists)BKN 101 – 95 BOS · BKN 67% → 79% +12BKN 67% → 79%+12 pts
- Q43:37Michael Porter Jr. makes 27-foot three point jumper (Nic Claxton assists)BKN 104 – 95 BOS · BKN 81% → 93% +12BKN 81% → 93%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 84%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -13.5
- ML BKN +475 / BOS -750
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 87%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -10
- BOS 83%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.1 pts
- BOS: Elo 83.4%, market 83.5%
- Fair odds
- BOS -507
- BKN +507 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 104.5 – 118.0 BOS
- Posted spread, posted total 222.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1340 | 1619 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −8 | −43 | BKN: Weaker than its recent lineups · BOS: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +280 Elo | BOS 83.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 87.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 87.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 83.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 30109.6 | Points scored | 113.722nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 30121.3 | Points allowed | 108.52nd of 30 |
| 26th of 30−11.6 | Margin | +5.29th of 30 |
| 24th of 30109.5 | Offense rating | 115.310th of 30 |
| 29th of 30121.1 | Defense rating | 110.16th of 30 |
| 27th of 30100.3 | Pace | 98.729th of 30 |
| 22nd of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–412th of 30 |
| 19th of 302–5 | Road vs home | 4–317th of 30 |
| 13th of 301509 | Opponent Elo | 146727th of 30 |
| 27th of 301340 | Elo rating | 16193rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
−8 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Celtics
−43 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BKN |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–9 | 6–9 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | — | 4–5 |
| Underdog | 5–9 | 2–4 |
| Overs–unders | 8–6 | 6–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BKN 0–9 BOS in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 9.
- Nov 18BOS 113 @ BKN 99Picked BOS 82%Hit
- Mar 18BKN 96 @ BOS 104Picked BOS 85%Hit
- Mar 15BOS 115 @ BKN 113Picked BOS 82%Hit
- Nov 13BOS 139 @ BKN 114Picked BOS 79%Hit
- Nov 8BKN 104 @ BOS 108Picked BOS 85%Hit
- Feb 14BKN 86 @ BOS 136Picked BOS 78%Hit
- Feb 13BOS 118 @ BKN 110Picked BOS 65%Hit
- Nov 10BKN 107 @ BOS 121Picked BOS 64%Hit