Boston Celtics at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BKN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Jaylen BrownPoints29
- Payton PritchardAssists5
- Payton PritchardRebounds10
Nets- Michael Porter Jr.Points25
- Terance MannAssists7
- Nic ClaxtonRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–99
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–99
- Q47.4Day'Ron Sharpe makes 4-foot two point shot (Nolan Traore assists)113–99
- Q418.0Payton Pritchard makes free throw 2 of 2113–97
- Q418.0Jordan Walsh enters the game for Sam Hauser112–97
- Q418.0Payton Pritchard makes free throw 1 of 2112–97
- Q418.0Drake Powell shooting foul111–97
- Q436.5Luka Garza enters the game for Neemias Queta111–97
- Q436.5Josh Minott enters the game for Derrick White111–97
- Q436.5Baylor Scheierman enters the game for Jaylen Brown111–97
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q332.8Tyrese Martin makes 24-foot three point jumper (Ziaire Williams assists)BOS 86 – 85 BKN · BKN 19% → 28% +9BKN 19% → 28%+9 pts
- Q316.3Jaylen Brown makes 25-foot three point jumper (Xavier Tillman assists)BOS 89 – 85 BKN · BOS 71% → 81% +9BOS 71% → 81%+9 pts
- Q49:08Michael Porter Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Terance Mann assists)BOS 89 – 90 BKN · BKN 26% → 39% +13BKN 26% → 39%+13 pts
- Q47:52Neemias Queta makes dunk (Sam Hauser assists)BOS 92 – 90 BKN · BOS 64% → 73% +9BOS 64% → 73%+9 pts
- Q47:00Sam Hauser makes 25-foot running pullup jump shot (Derrick White assists)BOS 97 – 90 BKN · BOS 81% → 90% +9BOS 81% → 90%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 82%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -11.5
- ML BOS -650 / BKN +425
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 80%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -6.5
- BOS 75%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.2 pts
- BOS: Elo 74.8%, market 82.0%
- Fair odds
- BOS -455
- BKN +455 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 117.0 – 105.5 BKN
- Posted spread, posted total 222.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | BKN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1614 | 1345 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −47 | −4 | BOS: Weaker than its recent lineups · BKN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +189 Elo | BOS 74.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 80.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 79.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 82.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30113.8 | Points scored | 110.527th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30109.2 | Points allowed | 121.924th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+4.6 | Margin | −11.527th of 30 |
| 10th of 30115.1 | Offense rating | 109.824th of 30 |
| 8th of 30110.5 | Defense rating | 121.229th of 30 |
| 29th of 3099.0 | Pace | 100.726th of 30 |
| 12th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–822nd of 30 |
| 12th of 303–4 | Road vs home | 0–629th of 30 |
| 27th of 301473 | Opponent Elo | 149816th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301614 | Elo rating | 134527th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
−47 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nets
−4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  BKN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–9 | 5–8 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 3–5 | — |
| Underdog | 2–4 | 5–8 |
| Overs–unders | 6–8 | 8–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 8–0 BKN in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 8.
- Mar 18BKN 96 @ BOS 104Picked BOS 85%Hit
- Mar 15BOS 115 @ BKN 113Picked BOS 82%Hit
- Nov 13BOS 139 @ BKN 114Picked BOS 79%Hit
- Nov 8BKN 104 @ BOS 108Picked BOS 85%Hit
- Feb 14BKN 86 @ BOS 136Picked BOS 78%Hit
- Feb 13BOS 118 @ BKN 110Picked BOS 65%Hit
- Nov 10BKN 107 @ BOS 121Picked BOS 64%Hit
- Nov 4BOS 124 @ BKN 114Picked BOS 57%Hit