Detroit Pistons at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints42
- Cade CunninghamAssists5
- Jalen DurenRebounds16
Celtics- Jaylen BrownPoints33
- Jaylen BrownAssists5
- Jaylen BrownRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–117
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–117
- Q40.0Jalen Duren bad pass (Jordan Walsh steals)114–117
- Q42.4Payton Pritchard makes free throw 2 of 2114–117
- Q42.4Duncan Robinson enters the game for Ausar Thompson114–116
- Q42.4Caris LeVert enters the game for Isaiah Stewart114–116
- Q42.4Payton Pritchard makes free throw 1 of 2114–116
- Q42.4Ausar Thompson personal take foul114–115
- Q42.4Payton Pritchard defensive rebound114–115
- Q44.4Cade Cunningham misses free throw 3 of 3114–115
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q44:33Derrick White makes 26-foot three pointer (Baylor Scheierman assists)DET 99 – 100 BOS · BOS 36% → 56% +20BOS 36% → 56%+20 pts
- Q43:24Derrick White makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jaylen Brown assists)DET 101 – 105 BOS · BOS 57% → 78% +21BOS 57% → 78%+21 pts
- Q41:37Jaylen Brown makes driving layupDET 105 – 107 BOS · BOS 49% → 71% +22BOS 49% → 71%+22 pts
- Q41:05Derrick White makes 31-foot three pointerDET 107 – 111 BOS · BOS 63% → 92% +28BOS 63% → 92%+28 pts
- Q450.5Tobias Harris makes 23-foot three point jumper (Cade Cunningham assists)DET 110 – 111 BOS · DET 6% → 35% +29DET 6% → 35%+29 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pistons 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.6% of 341 graded games.
- Market
- DET -1.5
- ML DET -125 / BOS +105
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -1
- DET 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.6 pts
- DET: Elo 54.8%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- DET -114
- BOS +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 117.5 – 116.0 BOS
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1581 | 1606 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +40 | −55 | DET: Stronger than its recent lineups · BOS: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +34 Elo | DET 54.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 51.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30119.6 | Points scored | 114.622nd of 30 |
| 5th of 30112.6 | Points allowed | 110.02nd of 30 |
| 4th of 30+7.0 | Margin | +4.611th of 30 |
| 10th of 30115.9 | Offense rating | 116.56th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30109.1 | Defense rating | 111.813th of 30 |
| 12th of 30102.7 | Pace | 98.629th of 30 |
| 1st of 3010–0 | Last 10 | 6–412th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–1 | Road vs home | 5–416th of 30 |
| 27th of 301467 | Opponent Elo | 146628th of 30 |
| 9th of 301581 | Elo rating | 16063rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
+40 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Celtics
−55 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 12–5 | 7–10 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 9–4 | 5–6 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 2–4 |
| Overs–unders | 10–7 | 7–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 2–6 BOS in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 8.
- Oct 26BOS 113 @ DET 119Picked DET 55%Hit
- Feb 26BOS 97 @ DET 117Picked BOS 63%Miss
- Dec 12DET 99 @ BOS 123Picked BOS 84%Hit
- Dec 4DET 120 @ BOS 130Picked BOS 86%Hit
- Oct 26BOS 124 @ DET 118Picked BOS 86%Hit
- Mar 22BOS 129 @ DET 102Picked BOS 76%Hit
- Mar 18DET 94 @ BOS 119Picked BOS 84%Hit
- Dec 28DET 122 @ BOS 128Picked BOS 85%Hit