Detroit Pistons at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints24
- Cade CunninghamAssists6
- Jalen DurenRebounds12
Pacers- Pascal SiakamPoints24
- Andrew NembhardAssists6
- Pascal SiakamRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game122–117
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter122–117
- Q40.6Pistons defensive team rebound122–117
- Q42.4Jarace Walker misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot122–117
- Q47.1Caris LeVert makes free throw 2 of 2122–117
- Q47.1Jay Huff enters the game for Ben Sheppard121–117
- Q47.1Isaiah Stewart enters the game for Jalen Duren121–117
- Q47.1Ausar Thompson enters the game for Duncan Robinson121–117
- Q47.1Caris LeVert makes free throw 1 of 2121–117
- Q47.1Jarace Walker shooting foul120–117
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q149.2Jaden Ivey makes 30-foot three point jumper (Daniss Jenkins assists)DET 33 – 32 IND · DET 70% → 76% +6DET 70% → 76%+6 pts
- Q31:41Caris LeVert makes 24-foot three point jumper (Ronald Holland II assists)DET 94 – 86 IND · DET 81% → 88% +7DET 81% → 88%+7 pts
- Q448.9Isaiah Jackson makes free throw 2 of 2DET 117 – 115 IND · IND 10% → 18% +9IND 10% → 18%+9 pts
- Q425.0Cade Cunningham makes 5-foot two point shotDET 119 – 115 IND · DET 88% → 99% +11DET 88% → 99%+11 pts
- Q415.4Andrew Nembhard makes 2-foot two point shotDET 119 – 117 IND · IND <1% → 7% +7IND <1% → 7%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pistons 77%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- DET -9.5
- ML DET -425 / IND +320
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -6.5
- DET 75%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.6 pts
- DET: Elo 74.7%, market 77.3%
- Fair odds
- DET -340
- IND +340 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 122.5 – 113.0 IND
- Posted spread, posted total 235.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1578 | 1466 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +42 | −83 | DET: Stronger than its recent lineups · IND: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | DET crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DET +188 Elo | DET 74.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 72.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 73.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 77.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30119.5 | Points scored | 110.127th of 30 |
| 4th of 30112.4 | Points allowed | 122.926th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+7.1 | Margin | −12.829th of 30 |
| 9th of 30115.7 | Offense rating | 104.529th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30108.8 | Defense rating | 116.723rd of 30 |
| 12th of 30102.7 | Pace | 104.06th of 30 |
| 1st of 3010–0 | Last 10 | 1–927th of 30 |
| 2nd of 306–1 | Road vs home | 2–526th of 30 |
| 26th of 301472 | Opponent Elo | 15157th of 30 |
| 8th of 301578 | Elo rating | 146621st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
+42 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pacers
−83 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  IND |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 12–4 | 7–9 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 9–3 | 0–2 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 7–7 |
| Overs–unders | 9–7 | 6–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 2–7 IND in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 9.
- Nov 17IND 112 @ DET 127Picked DET 74%Hit
- Jan 29DET 119 @ IND 133Picked IND 65%Hit
- Jan 16IND 111 @ DET 100Picked IND 53%Hit
- Nov 29DET 130 @ IND 106Picked IND 63%Miss
- Oct 23IND 115 @ DET 109Picked IND 66%Hit
- Mar 20IND 122 @ DET 103Picked IND 61%Hit
- Feb 22DET 115 @ IND 129Picked IND 75%Hit
- Dec 11IND 131 @ DET 123Picked IND 76%Hit