Minnesota Timberwolves at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints31
- Anthony EdwardsAssists5
- Rudy GobertRebounds12
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints40
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists6
- Chet HolmgrenRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game105–113
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–113
- Q40.4Chet Holmgren defensive rebound105–113
- Q43.1Donte DiVincenzo misses 26-foot three point jumper105–113
- Q44.7Jaden McDaniels offensive rebound105–113
- Q47.8Naz Reid misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot105–113
- Q413.3Luguentz Dort makes dunk (Chet Holmgren assists)105–113
- Q417.9Ajay Mitchell enters the game for Isaiah Hartenstein105–111
- Q417.9Thunder Full timeout105–111
- Q417.9Anthony Edwards makes free throw 2 of 2105–111
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:42Naz Reid makes 23-foot three point jumper (Julius Randle assists)MIN 94 – 93 OKC · MIN 28% → 45% +17MIN 28% → 45%+17 pts
- Q43:41Donte DiVincenzo makes 27-foot three point jumper (Julius Randle assists)MIN 101 – 101 OKC · MIN 21% → 41% +20MIN 21% → 41%+20 pts
- Q42:55Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes two point shot (Cason Wallace assists)MIN 101 – 103 OKC · OKC 58% → 73% +15OKC 58% → 73%+15 pts
- Q41:02Anthony Edwards makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot (Rudy Gobert assists)MIN 104 – 105 OKC · MIN 6% → 32% +26MIN 6% → 32%+26 pts
- Q437.7Chet Holmgren makes 24-foot three point jumper (Luguentz Dort assists)MIN 104 – 108 OKC · OKC 71% → 97% +26OKC 71% → 97%+26 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 79%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -10.5
- ML MIN +360 / OKC -500
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 78%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -7
- OKC 76%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.3 pts
- OKC: Elo 76.0%, market 79.3%
- Fair odds
- OKC -383
- MIN +383 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 108.0 – 118.5 OKC
- Posted spread, posted total 226.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1583 | 1732 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +15 | +7 | MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups · OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | MIN crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | OKC +201 Elo | OKC 76.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 78.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 78.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 79.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30119.6 | Points scored | 122.63rd of 30 |
| 9th of 30114.2 | Points allowed | 105.71st of 30 |
| 9th of 30+5.4 | Margin | +16.91st of 30 |
| 11th of 30115.8 | Offense rating | 118.63rd of 30 |
| 8th of 30110.6 | Defense rating | 102.21st of 30 |
| 11th of 30102.7 | Pace | 101.026th of 30 |
| 13th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 9th of 305–4 | Road vs home | 8–01st of 30 |
| 28th of 301469 | Opponent Elo | 144230th of 30 |
| 8th of 301583 | Elo rating | 17321st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
+15 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Thunder
+7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  OKC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–11 | 10–8 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 6–8 | 10–8 |
| Underdog | 0–3 | — |
| Overs–unders | 8–9 | 9–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 5–8 OKC in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 13.
- May 28MIN 94 @ OKC 124PlayoffsPicked OKC 75%Hit
- May 26OKC 128 @ MIN 126PlayoffsPicked OKC 57%Hit
- May 24OKC 101 @ MIN 143PlayoffsPicked OKC 57%Miss
- May 22MIN 103 @ OKC 118PlayoffsPicked OKC 74%Hit
- May 20MIN 88 @ OKC 114PlayoffsPicked OKC 71%Hit
- Feb 24MIN 131 @ OKC 128Picked OKC 83%Miss
- Feb 23OKC 130 @ MIN 123Picked OKC 75%Hit
- Feb 13OKC 101 @ MIN 116Picked OKC 78%Miss