Portland Trail Blazers at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Deni AvdijaPoints27
- Deni AvdijaAssists7
- Donovan ClinganRebounds13
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints33
- Donovan MitchellAssists5
- Evan MobleyRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game122–110
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter122–110
- Q420.7shot clock turnover122–110
- Q442.4Shaedon Sharpe defensive rebound122–110
- Q445.4Darius Garland misses 25-foot three point jumper122–110
- Q456.3Deni Avdija makes free throw 2 of 2122–110
- Q456.3Deni Avdija makes free throw 1 of 2121–110
- Q456.3Evan Mobley personal foul120–110
- Q41:02Shaedon Sharpe defensive rebound120–110
- Q41:04Darius Garland misses 26-foot three point jumper120–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q32:03Thomas Bryant makes 24-foot three point jumper (Nae'Qwan Tomlin assists)POR 88 – 79 CLE · CLE 24% → 34% +10CLE 24% → 34%+10 pts
- Q31:46Shaedon Sharpe makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshotPOR 91 – 79 CLE · POR 67% → 77% +10POR 67% → 77%+10 pts
- Q31:31Thomas Bryant makes 25-foot three point jumper (Lonzo Ball assists)POR 91 – 82 CLE · CLE 23% → 33% +10CLE 23% → 33%+10 pts
- Q31:17Jerami Grant makes 23-foot three point jumper (Deni Avdija assists)POR 94 – 82 CLE · POR 68% → 77% +10POR 68% → 77%+10 pts
- Q42:37Evan Mobley makes 25-foot three point jumper (Donovan Mitchell assists)POR 113 – 108 CLE · CLE 6% → 18% +12CLE 6% → 18%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 80%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -10.5
- ML POR +370 / CLE -485
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -6.5
- CLE 74%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.3 pts
- CLE: Elo 74.3%, market 79.6%
- Fair odds
- CLE -390
- POR +390 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 117.0 – 127.5 CLE
- Posted spread, posted total 244.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1446 | 1591 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | POR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +38 | +1 | POR: Missing Robert Williams III −8 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · CLE: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +184 Elo | CLE 74.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 74.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 74.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 79.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30118.2 | Points scored | 119.58th of 30 |
| 25th of 30121.1 | Points allowed | 115.812th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−2.9 | Margin | +3.812th of 30 |
| 20th of 30112.4 | Offense rating | 115.210th of 30 |
| 21st of 30115.2 | Defense rating | 111.610th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30104.7 | Pace | 103.19th of 30 |
| 24th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 16th of 305–7 | Road vs home | 8–413th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301548 | Opponent Elo | 149916th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301446 | Elo rating | 15917th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
+38 Elo- Robert Williams III left knee injury management−8 Elo
Cavaliers
+1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  POR |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 11–10 | 7–15 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 1–7 | 6–13 |
| Underdog | 10–3 | 1–2 |
| Overs–unders | 14–7 | 10–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
POR 1–3 CLE in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.