Boston Celtics at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Payton PritchardPoints42
- Jaylen BrownAssists11
- Jaylen BrownRebounds12
Cavaliers- Evan MobleyPoints27
- Darius GarlandAssists8
- Evan MobleyRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game117–115
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter117–115
- Q40.6Amari Williams enters the game for Payton Pritchard117–115
- Q40.6Jordan Walsh enters the game for Anfernee Simons117–115
- Q40.6Xavier Tillman enters the game for Sam Hauser117–115
- Q40.6Cavaliers Full timeout117–115
- Q40.6Evan Mobley defensive rebound117–115
- Q40.7Jaylen Brown misses free throw 2 of 2117–115
- Q40.7Jaylen Brown makes free throw 1 of 2117–115
- Q40.7Donovan Mitchell personal foul116–115
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q49:44Tyrese Proctor makes 25-foot three point jumper (De'Andre Hunter assists)BOS 92 – 88 CLE · CLE 29% → 41% +13CLE 29% → 41%+13 pts
- Q47:18Hugo Gonzalez makes 26-foot three point jumper (Payton Pritchard assists)BOS 97 – 90 CLE · BOS 63% → 77% +14BOS 63% → 77%+14 pts
- Q45:19Payton Pritchard makes 31-foot three point jumper (Jaylen Brown assists)BOS 102 – 93 CLE · BOS 78% → 89% +11BOS 78% → 89%+11 pts
- Q445.4Donovan Mitchell makes 27-foot three point jumper (Darius Garland assists)BOS 112 – 109 CLE · CLE <1% → 12% +11CLE <1% → 12%+11 pts
- Q420.5Donovan Mitchell makes 26-foot three pointerBOS 114 – 112 CLE · CLE <1% → 12% +12CLE <1% → 12%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -7.5
- ML BOS +225 / CLE -275
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -5.5
- CLE 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.4 pts
- CLE: Elo 70.8%, market 70.4%
- Fair odds
- CLE -238
- BOS +238 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 113.5 – 121.0 CLE
- Posted spread, posted total 234.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1608 | 1588 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | BOS on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −85 | +1 | BOS: Weaker than its recent lineups · CLE: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | BOS crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | CLE +154 Elo | CLE 70.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 73.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 73.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 70.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30114.8 | Points scored | 119.010th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30110.7 | Points allowed | 115.514th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+4.1 | Margin | +3.513th of 30 |
| 7th of 30116.5 | Offense rating | 114.114th of 30 |
| 14th of 30112.4 | Defense rating | 110.89th of 30 |
| 29th of 3098.6 | Pace | 103.67th of 30 |
| 12th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 13th of 304–5 | Road vs home | 8–310th of 30 |
| 26th of 301478 | Opponent Elo | 149516th of 30 |
| 4th of 301608 | Elo rating | 15887th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
−85 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Cavaliers
+1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 9–10 | 6–14 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 5–6 | 5–12 |
| Underdog | 4–4 | 1–2 |
| Overs–unders | 8–11 | 9–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 9–4 CLE in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 13.
- Oct 29CLE 105 @ BOS 125Picked CLE 60%Miss
- Feb 28CLE 123 @ BOS 116Picked BOS 51%Miss
- Feb 4BOS 112 @ CLE 105Picked CLE 52%Miss
- Dec 1BOS 111 @ CLE 115Picked CLE 53%Hit
- Nov 19CLE 117 @ BOS 120Picked BOS 70%Hit
- May 15CLE 98 @ BOS 113PlayoffsPicked BOS 83%Hit
- May 13BOS 109 @ CLE 102PlayoffsPicked BOS 74%Hit
- May 11BOS 106 @ CLE 93PlayoffsPicked BOS 64%Hit