Cleveland Cavaliers at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints42
- Darius GarlandAssists10
- Evan MobleyRebounds14
Hawks- Nickeil Alexander-WalkerPoints30
- Jalen JohnsonAssists12
- Jalen JohnsonRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game123–130
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter123–130
- Q420.2Jalen Johnson defensive rebound123–130
- Q423.1Donovan Mitchell misses 25-foot three point shot123–130
- Q427.9Lonzo Ball defensive rebound123–130
- Q429.7Dyson Daniels misses free throw 2 of 2123–130
- Q429.7Hawks offensive team rebound123–130
- Q429.7Dyson Daniels misses free throw 1 of 2123–130
- Q429.7Donovan Mitchell personal take foul123–130
- Q431.7Dyson Daniels defensive rebound123–130
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:51Donovan Mitchell makes 23-foot three point jumper (Evan Mobley assists)CLE 113 – 111 ATL · CLE 51% → 68% +17CLE 51% → 68%+17 pts
- Q44:26Evan Mobley makes 25-foot three point jumper (Darius Garland assists)CLE 116 – 113 ATL · CLE 56% → 74% +19CLE 56% → 74%+19 pts
- Q42:03Donovan Mitchell makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotCLE 121 – 123 ATL · CLE 12% → 34% +22CLE 12% → 34%+22 pts
- Q41:36Donovan Mitchell makes two point shot (Darius Garland assists)CLE 123 – 123 ATL · CLE 31% → 53% +22CLE 31% → 53%+22 pts
- Q41:09Zaccharie Risacher makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jalen Johnson assists)CLE 123 – 126 ATL · ATL 47% → 83% +35ATL 47% → 83%+35 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -6.5
- ML CLE -240 / ATL +200
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -3.5
- CLE 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.8 pts
- CLE: Elo 64.2%, market 67.9%
- Fair odds
- CLE -212
- ATL +212 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 121.5 – 115.0 ATL
- Posted spread, posted total 236.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1600 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +19 | −6 | CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups · ATL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +101 Elo | CLE 64.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 64.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 64.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 67.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30118.8 | Points scored | 117.117th of 30 |
| 13th of 30114.8 | Points allowed | 115.315th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+4.0 | Margin | +1.815th of 30 |
| 14th of 30114.1 | Offense rating | 114.213th of 30 |
| 8th of 30110.2 | Defense rating | 112.516th of 30 |
| 8th of 30103.4 | Pace | 102.314th of 30 |
| 14th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–39th of 30 |
| 10th of 304–4 | Road vs home | 3–420th of 30 |
| 14th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 148621st of 30 |
| 6th of 301600 | Elo rating | 148816th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
+19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hawks
−6 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–13 | 9–10 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–11 | 4–7 |
| Underdog | 1–2 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders | 8–11 | 10–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 5–3 ATL in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.
- Nov 2ATL 109 @ CLE 117Picked CLE 68%Hit
- Jan 30ATL 115 @ CLE 137Picked CLE 82%Hit
- Nov 29CLE 101 @ ATL 117Picked CLE 68%Miss
- Nov 27ATL 135 @ CLE 124Picked CLE 76%Miss
- Mar 6CLE 101 @ ATL 112Picked CLE 61%Miss
- Jan 20CLE 116 @ ATL 95Picked CLE 70%Hit
- Dec 16ATL 119 @ CLE 127Picked CLE 62%Hit
- Nov 28ATL 105 @ CLE 128Picked CLE 53%Hit