Atlanta Hawks at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- Kristaps PorzingisPoints22
- Dyson DanielsAssists7
- Dyson DanielsRebounds9
Wizards- CJ McCollumPoints46
- Khris MiddletonAssists12
- Alex SarrRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–132
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–132
- Q44.8shot clock turnover113–132
- Q430.4Zaccharie Risacher makes free throw 2 of 2113–132
- Q430.4Hawks offensive team rebound112–132
- Q430.4Zaccharie Risacher misses free throw 1 of 2112–132
- Q430.4Sharife Cooper personal foul112–132
- Q430.6Zaccharie Risacher defensive rebound112–132
- Q434.1Will Riley misses 26-foot jump bank shot112–132
- Q454.0Jacob Toppin makes dunk (Asa Newell assists)112–132
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q16:31Zaccharie Risacher makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jalen Johnson assists)ATL 8 – 20 WSH · ATL 50% → 57% +7ATL 50% → 57%+7 pts
- Q16:17CJ McCollum makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotATL 8 – 23 WSH · WSH 44% → 50% +7WSH 44% → 50%+7 pts
- Q13:06Corey Kispert makes 26-foot three point jumper (Bub Carrington assists)ATL 14 – 35 WSH · WSH 60% → 66% +7WSH 60% → 66%+7 pts
- Q26:03Luke Kennard makes 25-foot three point shot (Dyson Daniels assists)ATL 44 – 59 WSH · ATL 31% → 39% +7ATL 31% → 39%+7 pts
- Q25:02CJ McCollum makes 26-foot three point jumper (Khris Middleton assists)ATL 46 – 62 WSH · WSH 57% → 65% +8WSH 57% → 65%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hawks 81%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- ATL -10.5
- ML ATL -600 / WSH +400
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 77%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -9.5
- ATL 82%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.9 pts
- ATL: Elo 82.0%, market 81.1%
- Fair odds
- ATL -429
- WSH +429 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 125.5 – 115.0 WSH
- Posted spread, posted total 240.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1263 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +40 | +11 | ATL: Stronger than its recent lineups · WSH: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | WSH crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | ATL +263 Elo | ATL 82.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 76.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 77.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 81.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30117.3 | Points scored | 112.923rd of 30 |
| 10th of 30114.4 | Points allowed | 129.130th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+2.9 | Margin | −16.230th of 30 |
| 13th of 30114.5 | Offense rating | 107.128th of 30 |
| 12th of 30111.6 | Defense rating | 122.430th of 30 |
| 14th of 30102.3 | Pace | 104.24th of 30 |
| 9th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 0–1030th of 30 |
| 6th of 308–3 | Road vs home | 0–629th of 30 |
| 17th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 15129th of 30 |
| 14th of 301521 | Elo rating | 126330th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
+40 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Wizards
+11 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 9–9 | 4–12 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 4–6 | 0–2 |
| Underdog | 5–3 | 4–10 |
| Overs–unders | 9–9 | 10–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 5–3 WSH in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.
- Feb 8ATL 125 @ WSH 111Picked ATL 69%Hit
- Nov 15WSH 117 @ ATL 129Picked ATL 77%Hit
- Oct 30ATL 120 @ WSH 133Picked ATL 65%Miss
- Oct 28WSH 121 @ ATL 119Picked ATL 73%Miss
- Jan 13WSH 127 @ ATL 99Picked ATL 63%Miss
- Dec 31ATL 130 @ WSH 126Picked ATL 58%Hit
- Nov 25ATL 136 @ WSH 108Picked ATL 70%Hit
- Nov 1WSH 121 @ ATL 130Picked ATL 69%Hit