Charlotte Hornets at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- Kon KnueppelPoints28
- Mason PlumleeAssists6
- Moussa DiabateRebounds11
Hawks- Jalen JohnsonPoints28
- Jalen JohnsonAssists11
- Dyson DanielsRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game110–113
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter110–113
- Q40.1Hornets offensive team rebound110–113
- Q40.7Miles Bridges misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot110–113
- Q44.8Collin Sexton enters the game for Moussa Diabate110–113
- Q44.8Hornets Full timeout110–113
- Q44.8Miles Bridges defensive rebound110–113
- Q45.1Nickeil Alexander-Walker misses free throw 2 of 2110–113
- Q45.1Moussa Diabate enters the game for Tre Mann110–113
- Q45.1Mason Plumlee enters the game for Collin Sexton110–113
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:44Moussa Diabate makes 1-foot dunk (Kon Knueppel assists)CHA 106 – 107 ATL · CHA 24% → 36% +13CHA 24% → 36%+13 pts
- Q43:15Kon Knueppel makes 25-foot three pointerCHA 109 – 107 ATL · CHA 36% → 60% +24CHA 36% → 60%+24 pts
- Q42:14Jalen Johnson makes 16-foot two point shotCHA 110 – 109 ATL · ATL 27% → 45% +18ATL 27% → 45%+18 pts
- Q41:42Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes driving layupCHA 110 – 111 ATL · ATL 43% → 65% +22ATL 43% → 65%+22 pts
- Q411.3Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes free throw 2 of 2CHA 110 – 112 ATL · ATL 81% → 96% +15ATL 81% → 96%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hawks 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- ATL -8.5
- ML CHA +240 / ATL -290
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 75%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -8
- ATL 78%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.4 pts
- ATL: Elo 78.0%, market 71.7%
- Fair odds
- ATL -253
- CHA +253 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHA 110.0 – 118.5 ATL
- Posted spread, posted total 228.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1310 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | ATL and CHA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +16 | +4 | CHA: Stronger than its recent lineups · ATL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | ATL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | ATL +220 Elo | ATL 78.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 75.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 75.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 71.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 30116.6 | Points scored | 117.618th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30120.9 | Points allowed | 114.611th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−4.3 | Margin | +2.914th of 30 |
| 18th of 30113.9 | Offense rating | 114.514th of 30 |
| 25th of 30118.2 | Defense rating | 111.613th of 30 |
| 20th of 30101.7 | Pace | 102.613th of 30 |
| 25th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–38th of 30 |
| 27th of 301–7 | Road vs home | 2–424th of 30 |
| 21st of 301485 | Opponent Elo | 150513th of 30 |
| 29th of 301310 | Elo rating | 151914th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hornets
+16 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hawks
+4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHA |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–9 | 9–8 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 4–5 |
| Underdog | 6–7 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders | 8–8 | 9–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHA 3–5 ATL in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.
- Mar 18ATL 134 @ CHA 102Picked ATL 74%Hit
- Mar 12CHA 110 @ ATL 123Picked ATL 71%Hit
- Nov 30ATL 107 @ CHA 104Picked ATL 66%Hit
- Oct 25CHA 120 @ ATL 125Picked ATL 66%Hit
- Apr 10CHA 115 @ ATL 114Picked ATL 70%Miss
- Mar 23CHA 91 @ ATL 132Picked ATL 57%Hit
- Feb 14ATL 99 @ CHA 122Picked ATL 58%Miss
- Oct 25ATL 110 @ CHA 116Picked CHA 55%Hit