Cleveland Cavaliers at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints17
- Donovan MitchellAssists8
- Jaylon TysonRebounds9
Raptors- Brandon IngramPoints37
- Immanuel QuickleyAssists7
- Jakob PoeltlRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game99–110
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter99–110
- Q48.8shot clock turnover99–110
- Q433.0Jakob Poeltl defensive rebound99–110
- Q436.1Lonzo Ball misses 26-foot three point jumper99–110
- Q444.9Scottie Barnes turnover99–110
- Q444.9Scottie Barnes offensive foul99–110
- Q41:03Brandon Ingram defensive rebound99–110
- Q41:07Donovan Mitchell misses 29-foot three point pullup jump shot99–110
- Q41:14Scottie Barnes makes 6-foot two point shot (Jamal Shead assists)99–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q38:42Ja'Kobe Walter makes 23-foot three point jumper (Immanuel Quickley assists)CLE 58 – 66 TOR · TOR 68% → 76% +8TOR 68% → 76%+8 pts
- Q36:07Jaylon Tyson makes 25-foot three point shot (Lonzo Ball assists)CLE 67 – 73 TOR · CLE 20% → 28% +8CLE 20% → 28%+8 pts
- Q32:10Jamal Shead makes 27-foot three point shot (Sandro Mamukelashvili assists)CLE 74 – 83 TOR · TOR 74% → 82% +8TOR 74% → 82%+8 pts
- Q44:37Donovan Mitchell makes 25-foot three point jumper (Lonzo Ball assists)CLE 99 – 103 TOR · CLE 11% → 24% +13CLE 11% → 24%+13 pts
- Q44:13Brandon Ingram makes 23-foot three point step back jumpshotCLE 99 – 106 TOR · TOR 77% → 90% +13TOR 77% → 90%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Raptors 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- TOR -2.5
- ML CLE +110 / TOR -130
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 46%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR -1
- TOR 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.5 pts
- TOR: Elo 53.8%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- TOR -119
- CLE +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 115.0 – 117.5 TOR
- Posted spread, posted total 232.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1610 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | TOR and CLE on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −23 | +68 | CLE: Weaker than its recent lineups · TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +26 Elo | TOR 53.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 54.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 53.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30119.9 | Points scored | 121.05th of 30 |
| 14th of 30115.1 | Points allowed | 114.39th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+4.8 | Margin | +6.75th of 30 |
| 12th of 30115.0 | Offense rating | 118.14th of 30 |
| 6th of 30110.4 | Defense rating | 111.610th of 30 |
| 9th of 30103.5 | Pace | 102.314th of 30 |
| 8th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 9–12nd of 30 |
| 9th of 304–3 | Road vs home | 5–211th of 30 |
| 17th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 146229th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301610 | Elo rating | 151015th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
−23 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Raptors
+68 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–12 | 10–7 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 5–11 | 6–4 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 4–3 |
| Overs–unders | 8–10 | 8–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 6–3 TOR in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.
- Nov 13TOR 126 @ CLE 113Picked CLE 69%Miss
- Oct 31TOR 112 @ CLE 101Picked CLE 63%Miss
- Feb 12CLE 131 @ TOR 108Picked CLE 85%Hit
- Jan 9TOR 126 @ CLE 132Picked CLE 86%Hit
- Nov 24TOR 108 @ CLE 122Picked CLE 84%Hit
- Oct 23CLE 136 @ TOR 106Picked CLE 68%Hit
- Feb 10CLE 119 @ TOR 95Picked CLE 81%Hit
- Jan 1CLE 121 @ TOR 124Picked TOR 51%Hit