Brooklyn Nets at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- Tyrese MartinPoints26
- Terance MannAssists5
- Nic ClaxtonRebounds11
Raptors- Scottie BarnesPoints17
- Jamal SheadAssists9
- Scottie BarnesRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game109–119
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter109–119
- Q418.8Michael Porter Jr. makes two point shot (Noah Clowney assists)109–119
- Q422.8Jamal Shead bad pass (Noah Clowney steals)107–119
- Q424.6Noah Clowney bad pass (Jamal Shead steals)107–119
- Q429.1Jamal Shead makes free throw 2 of 2107–119
- Q429.1Jamal Shead makes free throw 1 of 2107–118
- Q429.1Nic Claxton personal foul107–117
- Q443.6Immanuel Quickley defensive rebound107–117
- Q446.8Michael Porter Jr. misses 24-foot three point shot107–117
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q49:16Tyrese Martin makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot (Day'Ron Sharpe assists)BKN 94 – 94 TOR · BKN 22% → 34% +12BKN 22% → 34%+12 pts
- Q45:31Nic Claxton makes alley oop layup (Terance Mann assists)BKN 102 – 102 TOR · BKN 26% → 37% +11BKN 26% → 37%+11 pts
- Q45:10Scottie Barnes makes 1-foot dunk (Jamal Shead assists)BKN 102 – 104 TOR · TOR 62% → 73% +11TOR 62% → 73%+11 pts
- Q44:24Michael Porter Jr. makes tip shotBKN 104 – 104 TOR · BKN 26% → 39% +12BKN 26% → 39%+12 pts
- Q43:17Immanuel Quickley makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jamal Shead assists)BKN 104 – 109 TOR · TOR 74% → 89% +15TOR 74% → 89%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Raptors 83%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- TOR -11.5
- ML BKN +450 / TOR -700
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 81%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR -8.5
- TOR 80%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.6 pts
- TOR: Elo 80.2%, market 82.8%
- Fair odds
- TOR -481
- BKN +481 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 109.0 – 120.5 TOR
- Posted spread, posted total 229.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1359 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +3 | +62 | BKN: Usual rotation · TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +243 Elo | TOR 80.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 80.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 80.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 82.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 30109.9 | Points scored | 121.15th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30120.2 | Points allowed | 114.610th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−10.3 | Margin | +6.56th of 30 |
| 24th of 30110.0 | Offense rating | 118.05th of 30 |
| 29th of 30120.3 | Defense rating | 111.614th of 30 |
| 27th of 30100.0 | Pace | 102.514th of 30 |
| 19th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 9–12nd of 30 |
| 18th of 303–5 | Road vs home | 4–213th of 30 |
| 10th of 301513 | Opponent Elo | 146827th of 30 |
| 27th of 301359 | Elo rating | 150616th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
+3 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Raptors
+62 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BKN |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–9 | 10–6 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | — | 6–3 |
| Underdog | 6–9 | 4–3 |
| Overs–unders | 8–7 | 8–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BKN 4–5 TOR in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.
- Nov 11TOR 119 @ BKN 109Picked TOR 79%Hit
- Apr 6TOR 120 @ BKN 109Picked TOR 55%Hit
- Mar 26TOR 116 @ BKN 86Picked BKN 55%Miss
- Jan 1BKN 113 @ TOR 130Picked TOR 52%Hit
- Dec 19BKN 101 @ TOR 94Picked TOR 54%Miss
- Apr 10TOR 102 @ BKN 106Picked BKN 75%Hit
- Mar 25BKN 96 @ TOR 88Picked BKN 57%Hit
- Feb 22BKN 93 @ TOR 121Picked BKN 52%Miss