Cleveland Cavaliers at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints43
- Donovan MitchellAssists6
- Jaylon TysonRebounds11
Pacers- Pascal SiakamPoints26
- Andrew NembhardAssists6
- Pascal SiakamRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game135–119
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter135–119
- Q45.5shot clock turnover135–119
- Q429.5Tony Bradley out of bounds bad pass turnover135–119
- Q435.3Tyrese Proctor makes free throw 2 of 2135–119
- Q435.3Tyrese Proctor makes free throw 1 of 2134–119
- Q435.3Taelon Peter shooting foul133–119
- Q449.7Ethan Thompson makes 6-foot two point shot133–119
- Q456.6Chris Livingston enters the game for Craig Porter Jr.133–117
- Q456.6Pacers defensive team rebound133–117
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:38De'Andre Hunter makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jaylon Tyson assists)CLE 5 – 2 IND · CLE 63% → 69% +6CLE 63% → 69%+6 pts
- Q37:01Bennedict Mathurin makes 26-foot three pointerCLE 80 – 71 IND · IND 11% → 17% +6IND 11% → 17%+6 pts
- Q35:12Jaylon Tyson makes 24-foot three point jumper (De'Andre Hunter assists)CLE 86 – 75 IND · CLE 81% → 88% +6CLE 81% → 88%+6 pts
- Q33:33Andrew Nembhard makes 28-foot three point jumper (Jarace Walker assists)CLE 90 – 81 IND · IND 10% → 16% +6IND 10% → 16%+6 pts
- Q328.1Tyrese Proctor makes 25-foot three point jumper (Donovan Mitchell assists)CLE 99 – 90 IND · CLE 78% → 86% +8CLE 78% → 86%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -4.5
- ML CLE -192 / IND +160
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -2
- CLE 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.7 pts
- CLE: Elo 58.4%, market 63.1%
- Fair odds
- CLE -171
- IND +171 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 117.5 – 113.0 IND
- Posted spread, posted total 230.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1580 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | CLE on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −25 | −61 | CLE: Weaker than its recent lineups · IND: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +59 Elo | CLE 58.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 63.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 62.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 63.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30118.8 | Points scored | 109.829th of 30 |
| 14th of 30115.6 | Points allowed | 118.621st of 30 |
| 13th of 30+3.2 | Margin | −8.826th of 30 |
| 13th of 30114.4 | Offense rating | 105.229th of 30 |
| 9th of 30111.3 | Defense rating | 113.619th of 30 |
| 9th of 30103.3 | Pace | 103.38th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–719th of 30 |
| 15th of 304–5 | Road vs home | 4–622nd of 30 |
| 13th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 150014th of 30 |
| 8th of 301580 | Elo rating | 148218th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
−25 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pacers
−61 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  IND |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–15 | 11–9 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–13 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 1–2 | 10–7 |
| Overs–unders | 9–12 | 7–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 5–9 IND in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 14.
- Nov 21IND 109 @ CLE 120Picked CLE 85%Hit
- May 13IND 114 @ CLE 105PlayoffsPicked CLE 73%Miss
- May 11CLE 109 @ IND 129PlayoffsPicked CLE 66%Miss
- May 9CLE 126 @ IND 104PlayoffsPicked CLE 66%Hit
- May 6IND 120 @ CLE 119PlayoffsPicked CLE 67%Miss
- May 4IND 121 @ CLE 112PlayoffsPicked CLE 76%Miss
- Apr 13IND 126 @ CLE 118Picked IND 68%Hit
- Apr 10CLE 112 @ IND 114Picked IND 78%Hit