Washington Wizards at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- Alex SarrPoints24
- Khris MiddletonAssists4
- Alex SarrRebounds9
Pacers- Pascal SiakamPoints24
- T.J. McConnellAssists8
- Pascal SiakamRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game86–119
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter86–119
- Q416.1shot clock turnover86–119
- Q440.1Tristan Vukcevic turnover86–119
- Q440.1Tristan Vukcevic offensive foul86–119
- Q447.8Will Riley defensive rebound86–119
- Q449.5RayJ Dennis misses two point shot86–119
- Q41:10Jeremiah Robinson-Earl defensive rebound86–119
- Q41:12Will Riley misses 13-foot two point shot86–119
- Q41:26Wizards Full timeout86–119
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:33Bilal Coulibaly makes 26-foot three point jumper (Khris Middleton assists)WSH 7 – 3 IND · WSH 34% → 40% +6WSH 34% → 40%+6 pts
- Q18:14Jay Huff makes 28-foot three point jumper (Ben Sheppard assists)WSH 7 – 6 IND · IND 60% → 66% +6IND 60% → 66%+6 pts
- Q14:36Jeremiah Robinson-Earl makes 27-foot three point jumper (Bennedict Mathurin assists)WSH 16 – 18 IND · IND 65% → 71% +6IND 65% → 71%+6 pts
- Q24:54Bub Carrington makes 30-foot three point jumper (Kyshawn George assists)WSH 45 – 46 IND · WSH 26% → 33% +7WSH 26% → 33%+7 pts
- Q24:20Bub Carrington makes 28-foot three point jumper (Kyshawn George assists)WSH 48 – 48 IND · WSH 28% → 35% +7WSH 28% → 35%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pacers 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- IND -6.5
- ML WSH +210 / IND -250
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -4
- IND 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.1 pts
- IND: Elo 65.8%, market 68.9%
- Fair odds
- IND -221
- WSH +221 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 117.0 – 123.5 IND
- Posted spread, posted total 240.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1296 | 1462 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +13 | −76 | WSH: Stronger than its recent lineups · IND: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | IND +114 Elo | IND 65.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 64.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 64.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | IND 68.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 30114.1 | Points scored | 109.628th of 30 |
| 30th of 30128.2 | Points allowed | 121.425th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−14.1 | Margin | −11.829th of 30 |
| 27th of 30108.2 | Offense rating | 104.329th of 30 |
| 30th of 30121.6 | Defense rating | 115.621st of 30 |
| 4th of 30104.1 | Pace | 103.97th of 30 |
| 27th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 1–927th of 30 |
| 29th of 301–9 | Road vs home | 2–627th of 30 |
| 11th of 301511 | Opponent Elo | 151410th of 30 |
| 30th of 301296 | Elo rating | 146221st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
+13 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pacers
−76 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  IND |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–12 | 9–9 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 0–2 | 0–2 |
| Underdog | 5–10 | 9–7 |
| Overs–unders | 11–6 | 7–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 1–6 IND in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 7.