Indiana Pacers at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- T.J. McConnellPoints16
- T.J. McConnellAssists6
- Jarace WalkerRebounds9
Raptors- Brandon IngramPoints26
- Immanuel QuickleyAssists6
- Scottie BarnesRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game95–97
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter95–97
- Q40.1Pacers offensive team rebound95–97
- Q40.2Bennedict Mathurin misses 26-foot jump bank shot95–97
- Q40.6Isaiah Jackson enters the game for T.J. McConnell95–97
- Q40.6Pacers Full timeout95–97
- Q40.6Brandon Ingram makes 14-foot pullup jump shot95–97
- Q411.4Immanuel Quickley defensive rebound95–95
- Q414.7Jakob Poeltl blocks Pascal Siakam 's 5-foot two point shot95–95
- Q434.9Jay Huff defensive rebound95–95
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q48:21Bennedict Mathurin makes 26-foot three pointerIND 83 – 81 TOR · IND 34% → 48% +14IND 34% → 48%+14 pts
- Q42:40Jay Huff makes driving dunk (Andrew Nembhard assists)IND 93 – 93 TOR · IND 27% → 43% +16IND 27% → 43%+16 pts
- Q42:21Brandon Ingram makes 21-foot step back jumpshotIND 93 – 95 TOR · TOR 56% → 74% +17TOR 56% → 74%+17 pts
- Q41:33T.J. McConnell makes two point shotIND 95 – 95 TOR · IND 24% → 45% +21IND 24% → 45%+21 pts
- Q40.6Brandon Ingram makes 14-foot pullup jump shotIND 95 – 97 TOR · TOR 50% → >99% +50TOR 50% → >99%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Raptors 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- TOR -10.5
- ML IND +300 / TOR -400
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 79%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR -8.5
- TOR 80%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.8 pts
- TOR: Elo 80.0%, market 76.2%
- Fair odds
- TOR -320
- IND +320 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 111.5 – 122.0 TOR
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1463 | 1520 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −77 | +71 | IND: Weaker than its recent lineups · TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +241 Elo | TOR 80.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 79.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 79.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 76.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30110.5 | Points scored | 120.47th of 30 |
| 26th of 30122.8 | Points allowed | 113.47th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−12.4 | Margin | +6.94th of 30 |
| 29th of 30105.0 | Offense rating | 117.55th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30116.8 | Defense rating | 110.89th of 30 |
| 7th of 30103.9 | Pace | 102.316th of 30 |
| 27th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 30th of 300–9 | Road vs home | 6–27th of 30 |
| 9th of 301513 | Opponent Elo | 146229th of 30 |
| 21st of 301463 | Elo rating | 152014th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
−77 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Raptors
+71 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  IND |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–9 | 11–7 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 0–2 | 7–4 |
| Underdog | 8–7 | 4–3 |
| Overs–unders | 7–10 | 8–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
IND 3–5 TOR in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.
- Nov 15TOR 129 @ IND 111Picked TOR 68%Hit
- Feb 26TOR 91 @ IND 111Picked IND 82%Hit
- Dec 3IND 111 @ TOR 122Picked IND 58%Miss
- Nov 18IND 119 @ TOR 130Picked IND 58%Miss
- Apr 9IND 140 @ TOR 123Picked IND 73%Hit
- Feb 26TOR 130 @ IND 122Picked IND 69%Miss
- Feb 14IND 127 @ TOR 125Picked IND 64%Hit
- Nov 22TOR 132 @ IND 131Picked IND 66%Miss