Chicago Bulls at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- Josh GiddeyPoints17
- Josh GiddeyAssists7
- Josh GiddeyRebounds11
Pacers- Pascal SiakamPoints24
- Andrew NembhardAssists6
- Isaiah JacksonRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game101–103
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter101–103
- Q41.1Pascal Siakam makes 14-foot pullup jump shot101–103
- Q47.5Ayo Dosunmu enters the game for Kevin Huerter101–101
- Q47.5Pacers Full timeout101–101
- Q47.5(00:07.5) [Bulls] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)101–101
- Q47.5Jay Huff defensive goaltending violation101–101
- Q47.5Tre Jones makes driving layup101–101
- Q410.7Kevin Huerter enters the game for Patrick Williams99–101
- Q410.7Bulls Full timeout99–101
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:19T.J. McConnell makes 13-foot pullup jump shotCHI 97 – 98 IND · IND 39% → 58% +19IND 39% → 58%+19 pts
- Q41:10Pascal Siakam makes 3-foot two point shotCHI 99 – 100 IND · IND 36% → 62% +26IND 36% → 62%+26 pts
- Q410.7Andrew Nembhard makes free throw 2 of 2CHI 99 – 101 IND · IND 80% → 96% +15IND 80% → 96%+15 pts
- Q47.5Tre Jones makes driving layupCHI 101 – 101 IND · CHI 2% → 50% +48CHI 2% → 50%+48 pts
- Q41.1Pascal Siakam makes 14-foot pullup jump shotCHI 101 – 103 IND · IND 50% → >99% +50IND 50% → >99%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bulls 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- CHI -2.5
- ML CHI -145 / IND +125
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI -1.5
- CHI 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.3 pts
- CHI: Elo 55.8%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- CHI -133
- IND +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 121.5 – 119.0 IND
- Posted spread, posted total 240.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1464 | 1476 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | IND and CHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +17 | −72 | CHI: Stronger than its recent lineups · IND: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHI +41 Elo | CHI 55.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 58.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 58.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHI 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30121.0 | Points scored | 110.128th of 30 |
| 28th of 30124.2 | Points allowed | 119.523rd of 30 |
| 20th of 30−3.2 | Margin | −9.426th of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.4 | Offense rating | 105.129th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30116.4 | Defense rating | 114.120th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30105.5 | Pace | 103.67th of 30 |
| 19th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 2–823rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–7 | Road vs home | 3–624th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301488 | Opponent Elo | 150013th of 30 |
| 21st of 301464 | Elo rating | 147618th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
+17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pacers
−72 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  IND |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–10 | 10–9 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–8 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 7–2 | 9–7 |
| Overs–unders | 10–8 | 7–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 4–4 IND in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.
- Mar 10IND 103 @ CHI 121Picked IND 61%Miss
- Mar 2CHI 112 @ IND 127Picked IND 82%Hit
- Jan 8CHI 113 @ IND 129Picked IND 64%Hit
- Dec 6IND 132 @ CHI 123Picked IND 60%Hit
- Mar 27IND 99 @ CHI 125Picked CHI 51%Hit
- Mar 13CHI 132 @ IND 129Picked IND 59%Miss
- Dec 28IND 120 @ CHI 104Picked CHI 56%Miss
- Oct 30CHI 112 @ IND 105Picked IND 66%Miss