Chicago Bulls at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- Josh GiddeyPoints25
- Josh GiddeyAssists9
- Nikola VucevicRebounds14
Hornets- Brandon MillerPoints27
- LaMelo BallAssists8
- Miles BridgesRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game116–123
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter116–123
- Q44.2Hornets defensive team rebound116–123
- Q45.1Coby White misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot116–123
- Q410.2Miles Bridges makes free throw 2 of 2116–123
- Q410.2Sion James enters the game for LaMelo Ball116–122
- Q410.2Miles Bridges makes free throw 1 of 2116–122
- Q410.2Matas Buzelis personal take foul116–121
- Q412.0Matas Buzelis makes driving layup116–121
- Q417.5LaMelo Ball makes 2-foot dunk (Miles Bridges assists)114–121
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q32:59Brandon Miller makes 28-foot three point jumper (Sion James assists)CHI 88 – 87 CHA · CHA 32% → 43% +11CHA 32% → 43%+11 pts
- Q332.2Brandon Miller makes 23-foot three pointer (Collin Sexton assists)CHI 94 – 93 CHA · CHA 31% → 43% +11CHA 31% → 43%+11 pts
- Q411:11Kon Knueppel makes 26-foot three point jumper (LaMelo Ball assists)CHI 96 – 98 CHA · CHA 43% → 56% +13CHA 43% → 56%+13 pts
- Q49:29Miles Bridges makes 27-foot three point jumper (Brandon Miller assists)CHI 98 – 105 CHA · CHA 66% → 77% +12CHA 66% → 77%+12 pts
- Q42:57Nikola Vucevic makes 25-foot three point jumper (Coby White assists)CHI 110 – 114 CHA · CHI 8% → 21% +14CHI 8% → 21%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bulls 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- CHI -2.5
- ML CHI -140 / CHA +120
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI -4.5
- CHI 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- +11.0 pts
- CHI: Elo 67.2%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- CHI -128
- CHA +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 126.0 – 123.5 CHA
- Posted spread, posted total 249.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | CHA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1477 | 1299 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +37 | +42 | CHI: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | CHI crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | CHI +124 Elo | CHI 67.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 62.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 63.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHI 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30121.3 | Points scored | 115.320th of 30 |
| 28th of 30124.2 | Points allowed | 120.923rd of 30 |
| 20th of 30−2.9 | Margin | −5.622nd of 30 |
| 15th of 30113.8 | Offense rating | 113.018th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30116.5 | Defense rating | 118.425th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30105.4 | Pace | 101.620th of 30 |
| 19th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 1–927th of 30 |
| 19th of 303–6 | Road vs home | 3–624th of 30 |
| 15th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149118th of 30 |
| 19th of 301477 | Elo rating | 129929th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
+37 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hornets
+42 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  CHA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–9 | 8–10 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–7 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 7–2 | 7–8 |
| Overs–unders | 10–7 | 8–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 7–1 CHA in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 8.
- Apr 6CHI 131 @ CHA 117Picked CHI 75%Hit
- Jan 17CHA 125 @ CHI 123Picked CHI 63%Miss
- Dec 30CHI 115 @ CHA 108Picked CHI 61%Hit
- Dec 13CHA 95 @ CHI 109Picked CHI 66%Hit
- Jan 31CHI 117 @ CHA 110Picked CHI 65%Hit
- Jan 8CHI 119 @ CHA 112Picked CHI 61%Hit
- Jan 5CHA 91 @ CHI 104Picked CHI 73%Hit
- Dec 6CHA 100 @ CHI 111Picked CHI 58%Hit