New York Knicks at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints33
- Josh HartAssists7
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds10
Hornets- Brandon MillerPoints18
- LaMelo BallAssists4
- LaMelo BallRebounds6
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game129–101
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter129–101
- Q40.0Knicks offensive team rebound129–101
- Q40.0Pacome Dadiet misses heave jump shot129–101
- Q42.2Tre Mann makes 31-foot three pointer129–101
- Q49.6Hornets offensive team rebound129–98
- Q49.6Ariel Hukporti blocks Kon Knueppel 's 4-foot driving layup129–98
- Q417.4Tyler Kolek makes 29-foot three point jumper (Mohamed Diawara assists)129–98
- Q424.1Pacome Dadiet defensive rebound126–98
- Q428.5Tre Mann misses 29-foot three point pullup jump shot126–98
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:46Brandon Miller makes 27-foot three point jumper (Kon Knueppel assists)NY 0 – 3 CHA · CHA 30% → 36% +6CHA 30% → 36%+6 pts
- Q110:20Miles Bridges makes 27-foot three point jumper (Brandon Miller assists)NY 2 – 8 CHA · CHA 36% → 42% +6CHA 36% → 42%+6 pts
- Q19:33Josh Hart makes 22-foot three pointer (Jalen Brunson assists)NY 7 – 8 CHA · NY 62% → 68% +6NY 62% → 68%+6 pts
- Q19:08LaMelo Ball makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshot (Kon Knueppel assists)NY 7 – 11 CHA · CHA 32% → 38% +6CHA 32% → 38%+6 pts
- Q11:24Liam McNeeley makes 23-foot three point jumper (Collin Sexton assists)NY 30 – 29 CHA · CHA 24% → 30% +6CHA 24% → 30%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- NY -6.5
- ML NY -270 / CHA +220
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 77%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -7
- NY 75%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.8 pts
- NY: Elo 74.8%, market 70.0%
- Fair odds
- NY -234
- CHA +234 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 124.5 – 118.0 CHA
- Posted spread, posted total 242.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | CHA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1582 | 1308 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +13 | +62 | NY: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +189 Elo | NY 74.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 77.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 77.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 70.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30120.3 | Points scored | 116.220th of 30 |
| 14th of 30115.1 | Points allowed | 120.423rd of 30 |
| 10th of 30+5.2 | Margin | −4.221st of 30 |
| 4th of 30118.1 | Offense rating | 113.916th of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.0 | Defense rating | 118.024th of 30 |
| 19th of 30101.7 | Pace | 101.520th of 30 |
| 9th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 1–927th of 30 |
| 21st of 302–5 | Road vs home | 3–523rd of 30 |
| 17th of 301492 | Opponent Elo | 148522nd of 30 |
| 8th of 301582 | Elo rating | 130829th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
+13 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hornets
+62 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NY |  CHA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–8 | 8–9 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 7–6 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 1–2 | 7–7 |
| Overs–unders | 10–6 | 8–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NY 6–1 CHA in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 7.