New York Knicks at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BKN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- Karl-Anthony TownsPoints37
- Josh HartAssists7
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds12
Nets- Noah ClowneyPoints31
- Tyrese MartinAssists5
- Day'Ron SharpeRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–100
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–100
- Q42.6Pacome Dadiet defensive rebound113–100
- Q42.6Jalen Wilson misses 28-foot three point pullup jump shot113–100
- Q46.5Jalen Wilson defensive rebound113–100
- Q48.0Tosan Evbuomwan misses 6-foot two point shot113–100
- Q434.4Egor Demin makes two point shot113–100
- Q439.7Jalen Wilson defensive rebound113–98
- Q441.5Tyler Kolek misses two point shot113–98
- Q453.1Tosan Evbuomwan defensive rebound113–98
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q14:47Jalen Brunson makes 24-foot three point jumper (Mikal Bridges assists)NY 12 – 14 BKN · NY 73% → 78% +5NY 73% → 78%+5 pts
- Q13:15Josh Hart makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)NY 18 – 20 BKN · NY 72% → 78% +5NY 72% → 78%+5 pts
- Q210:52Noah Clowney makes 23-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Martin assists)NY 24 – 29 BKN · BKN 24% → 30% +6BKN 24% → 30%+6 pts
- Q39:18Mikal Bridges makes 23-foot three point jumper (Karl-Anthony Towns assists)NY 58 – 51 BKN · NY 83% → 88% +5NY 83% → 88%+5 pts
- Q37:39Jalen Brunson makes 27-foot three point jumper (Josh Hart assists)NY 61 – 54 BKN · NY 83% → 88% +5NY 83% → 88%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 84%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- NY -13.5
- ML NY -750 / BKN +475
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 86%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -8
- NY 79%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.9 pts
- NY: Elo 78.7%, market 83.5%
- Fair odds
- NY -507
- BKN +507 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 121.0 – 107.5 BKN
- Posted spread, posted total 228.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | BKN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1578 | 1356 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | BKN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −2 | −3 | NY: Usual rotation · BKN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +227 Elo | NY 78.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 86.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 86.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 83.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30120.8 | Points scored | 109.829th of 30 |
| 16th of 30116.1 | Points allowed | 120.122nd of 30 |
| 10th of 30+4.7 | Margin | −10.326th of 30 |
| 4th of 30118.0 | Offense rating | 110.024th of 30 |
| 19th of 30113.5 | Defense rating | 120.329th of 30 |
| 15th of 30102.3 | Pace | 99.927th of 30 |
| 8th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–719th of 30 |
| 25th of 301–5 | Road vs home | 0–729th of 30 |
| 16th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15149th of 30 |
| 9th of 301578 | Elo rating | 135627th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
−2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nets
−3 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NY |  BKN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–7 | 7–9 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–5 | — |
| Underdog | 1–2 | 7–9 |
| Overs–unders | 10–5 | 8–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NY 9–0 BKN in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 9.