Oklahoma City Thunder at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors POR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints26
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists5
- Chet HolmgrenRebounds9
Trail Blazers- Deni AvdijaPoints31
- Deni AvdijaAssists10
- Deni AvdijaRebounds19
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game123–115
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter123–115
- Q45.3Deni Avdija makes free throw 1 of 1123–115
- Q45.3Jaylin Williams enters the game for Chet Holmgren123–114
- Q45.3Chet Holmgren shooting foul123–114
- Q45.3Deni Avdija makes driving layup123–114
- Q411.5Ajay Mitchell makes free throw 2 of 2123–112
- Q411.5Ajay Mitchell makes free throw 1 of 2122–112
- Q411.5Sidy Cissoko enters the game for Shaedon Sharpe121–112
- Q411.5Shaedon Sharpe personal take foul121–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q33:28Caleb Love makes 26-foot three point jumper (Deni Avdija assists)OKC 77 – 80 POR · POR 30% → 40% +10POR 30% → 40%+10 pts
- Q49:11Kris Murray makes 22-foot three point jumper (Deni Avdija assists)OKC 93 – 91 POR · POR 16% → 26% +10POR 16% → 26%+10 pts
- Q47:22Ajay Mitchell makes 23-foot three point jumper (Aaron Wiggins assists)OKC 100 – 93 POR · OKC 82% → 90% +9OKC 82% → 90%+9 pts
- Q42:58Kris Murray makes 25-foot three point shot (Deni Avdija assists)OKC 107 – 105 POR · POR 10% → 26% +16POR 10% → 26%+16 pts
- Q42:37Chet Holmgren makes layup (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)OKC 109 – 105 POR · OKC 75% → 87% +12OKC 75% → 87%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 83%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -11.5
- ML OKC -700 / POR +450
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 87%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -10
- OKC 83%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.6 pts
- OKC: Elo 83.4%, market 82.8%
- Fair odds
- OKC -481
- POR +481 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 123.0 – 111.5 POR
- Posted spread, posted total 234.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1738 | 1451 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +29 | −1 | OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups · POR: Missing Damian Lillard −47, Jrue Holiday −23 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +281 Elo | OKC 83.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 87.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 87.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 82.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30122.2 | Points scored | 118.414th of 30 |
| 1st of 30106.3 | Points allowed | 121.125th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+15.9 | Margin | −2.619th of 30 |
| 4th of 30118.2 | Offense rating | 112.720th of 30 |
| 1st of 30102.9 | Defense rating | 115.221st of 30 |
| 23rd of 30101.1 | Pace | 104.53rd of 30 |
| 1st of 3010–0 | Last 10 | 3–719th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Road vs home | 3–524th of 30 |
| 30th of 301453 | Opponent Elo | 15412nd of 30 |
| 1st of 301738 | Elo rating | 145122nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
+29 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Trail Blazers
−1 Elo- Damian Lillard left achilles tendon−47 Elo
- Jrue Holiday right calf strain−23 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OKC |  POR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 10–10 | 9–10 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 10–10 | 1–7 |
| Underdog | — | 8–3 |
| Overs–unders | 10–10 | 12–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OKC 9–1 POR in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 10.
- Nov 23POR 95 @ OKC 122Picked OKC 89%Hit
- Nov 5OKC 119 @ POR 121Picked OKC 60%Miss
- Mar 7POR 89 @ OKC 107Picked OKC 53%Hit
- Jan 26OKC 118 @ POR 108Picked OKC 86%Hit
- Nov 20POR 99 @ OKC 109Picked OKC 85%Hit
- Nov 1OKC 137 @ POR 114Picked OKC 84%Hit
- Mar 6OKC 128 @ POR 120Picked OKC 67%Hit
- Jan 23POR 109 @ OKC 111Picked OKC 84%Hit