Phoenix Suns at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Collin GillespiePoints24
- Devin BookerAssists6
- Mark WilliamsRebounds14
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints37
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists8
- Chet HolmgrenRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game119–123
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter119–123
- Q40.3Alex Caruso defensive rebound119–123
- Q43.2Devin Booker misses 24-foot three point jumper119–123
- Q44.7Collin Gillespie enters the game for Oso Ighodaro119–123
- Q44.7Suns Full timeout119–123
- Q44.7Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 2 of 2119–123
- Q44.7Devin Booker enters the game for Nigel Hayes-Davis119–122
- Q44.7Dillon Brooks enters the game for Collin Gillespie119–122
- Q44.7Cason Wallace enters the game for Chet Holmgren119–122
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:19Jaylin Williams makes 1-foot layup (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)PHX 108 – 111 OKC · OKC 69% → 81% +12OKC 69% → 81%+12 pts
- Q43:01Royce O'Neale makes 24-foot jump bank shot (Devin Booker assists)PHX 111 – 112 OKC · PHX 13% → 31% +18PHX 13% → 31%+18 pts
- Q42:40Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 11-foot pullup jump shotPHX 111 – 114 OKC · OKC 68% → 82% +14OKC 68% → 82%+14 pts
- Q42:27Collin Gillespie makes 24-foot three point jumper (Devin Booker assists)PHX 114 – 115 OKC · PHX 12% → 32% +20PHX 12% → 32%+20 pts
- Q41:38Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 25-foot three pointerPHX 114 – 118 OKC · OKC 69% → 91% +22OKC 69% → 91%+22 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 86%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -14.5
- ML PHX +600 / OKC -1000
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 86%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -9
- OKC 81%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.8 pts
- OKC: Elo 80.7%, market 86.4%
- Fair odds
- OKC -636
- PHX +636 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 104.0 – 118.5 OKC
- Posted spread, posted total 222.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1557 | 1736 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +11 | +20 | PHX: Stronger than its recent lineups · OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | PHX crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | OKC +248 Elo | OKC 80.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 86.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 85.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 86.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30116.8 | Points scored | 122.13rd of 30 |
| 6th of 30112.6 | Points allowed | 105.61st of 30 |
| 12th of 30+4.2 | Margin | +16.51st of 30 |
| 13th of 30114.5 | Offense rating | 118.44th of 30 |
| 8th of 30110.5 | Defense rating | 102.41st of 30 |
| 21st of 30101.4 | Pace | 100.826th of 30 |
| 3rd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 10–01st of 30 |
| 10th of 304–4 | Road vs home | 9–01st of 30 |
| 26th of 301478 | Opponent Elo | 144830th of 30 |
| 11th of 301557 | Elo rating | 17361st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
+11 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Thunder
+20 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHX |  OKC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 13–6 | 10–9 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 8–1 | 10–9 |
| Underdog | 5–5 | — |
| Overs–unders | 8–11 | 9–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHX 0–6 OKC in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.