Portland Trail Blazers at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Deni AvdijaPoints25
- Deni AvdijaAssists14
- Donovan ClinganRebounds11
Raptors- Scottie BarnesPoints28
- Immanuel QuickleyAssists8
- Scottie BarnesRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game118–121
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter118–121
- Q41.0Deni Avdija defensive rebound118–121
- Q41.0Brandon Ingram misses free throw 2 of 2118–121
- Q41.0Jakob Poeltl enters the game for Sandro Mamukelashvili118–121
- Q41.0Brandon Ingram makes free throw 1 of 2118–121
- Q41.0Shaedon Sharpe personal take foul118–120
- Q41.8Sandro Mamukelashvili enters the game for Jakob Poeltl118–120
- Q41.8Raptors Full timeout118–120
- Q42.4Jerami Grant makes 26-foot three pointer (Toumani Camara assists)118–120
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:48Shaedon Sharpe makes two point shotPOR 106 – 110 TOR · POR 11% → 20% +9POR 11% → 20%+9 pts
- Q43:00Jakob Poeltl makes 4-foot hook shot (Scottie Barnes assists)POR 108 – 112 TOR · TOR 69% → 82% +13TOR 69% → 82%+13 pts
- Q42:16Toumani Camara makes 26-foot three point jumper (Deni Avdija assists)POR 111 – 114 TOR · POR 6% → 21% +15POR 6% → 21%+15 pts
- Q41:53Jakob Poeltl makes 2-foot two point shot (Scottie Barnes assists)POR 111 – 116 TOR · TOR 80% → 92% +11TOR 80% → 92%+11 pts
- Q41:18Shaedon Sharpe makes free throw 2 of 2POR 115 – 117 TOR · POR 16% → 24% +9POR 16% → 24%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Raptors 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- TOR -4.5
- ML POR +164 / TOR -198
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR -5.5
- TOR 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.0 pts
- TOR: Elo 70.7%, market 63.7%
- Fair odds
- TOR -175
- POR +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 113.0 – 117.5 TOR
- Posted spread, posted total 230.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1449 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +19 | +55 | POR: Missing Jrue Holiday −16 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −36 | — | POR crossed 3 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | TOR +153 Elo | TOR 70.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 67.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 68.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 63.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30118.3 | Points scored | 117.617th of 30 |
| 25th of 30121.2 | Points allowed | 112.94th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−2.9 | Margin | +4.710th of 30 |
| 20th of 30112.4 | Offense rating | 115.011th of 30 |
| 21st of 30115.2 | Defense rating | 110.46th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30104.6 | Pace | 101.617th of 30 |
| 21st of 303–7 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 15th of 305–6 | Road vs home | 7–26th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301550 | Opponent Elo | 146529th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301449 | Elo rating | 149517th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
+19 Elo- Jrue Holiday right calf strain−16 Elo
Raptors
+55 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  POR |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 10–10 | 11–10 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–7 | 7–6 |
| Underdog | 9–3 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders | 13–7 | 8–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
POR 4–0 TOR in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.