Toronto Raptors at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- Scottie BarnesPoints30
- Immanuel QuickleyAssists10
- Scottie BarnesRebounds12
Hornets- Miles BridgesPoints35
- Collin SextonAssists5
- Moussa DiabateRebounds9
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game111–118
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime111–118
- OT0.8Scottie Barnes offensive rebound111–118
- OT2.6Brandon Ingram misses 31-foot three point pullup jump shot111–118
- OT3.9Kon Knueppel makes free throw 2 of 2111–118
- OT3.9Kon Knueppel makes free throw 1 of 2111–117
- OT3.9Ja'Kobe Walter personal take foul111–116
- OT4.9Sion James enters the game for Ryan Kalkbrenner111–116
- OT9.5Scottie Barnes makes free throw 2 of 2111–116
- OT9.5Ryan Kalkbrenner enters the game for Sion James110–116
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:48Collin Sexton makes 27-foot three pointerTOR 100 – 98 CHA · CHA 11% → 29% +17CHA 11% → 29%+17 pts
- Q41:02Sion James makes two point shotTOR 100 – 100 CHA · CHA 21% → 47% +25CHA 21% → 47%+25 pts
- Q441.6Immanuel Quickley makes 13-foot driving floating jump shotTOR 102 – 100 CHA · TOR 53% → 82% +30TOR 53% → 82%+30 pts
- Q410.1Kon Knueppel makes 23-foot three point jumper (Sion James assists)TOR 104 – 104 CHA · CHA <1% → 49% +48CHA <1% → 49%+48 pts
- OT3:30Miles Bridges makes 24-foot three point jumper (Kon Knueppel assists)TOR 106 – 109 CHA · CHA 44% → 67% +23CHA 44% → 67%+23 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Raptors 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- TOR -6.5
- ML TOR -280 / CHA +230
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR -8.5
- TOR 80%
- Ratings vs. market
- +9.3 pts
- TOR: Elo 80.2%, market 70.9%
- Fair odds
- TOR -243
- CHA +243 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 120.5 – 114.0 CHA
- Posted spread, posted total 234.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | CHA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1311 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | CHA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +69 | +40 | TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +243 Elo | TOR 80.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 72.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 73.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 70.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30119.2 | Points scored | 115.719th of 30 |
| 4th of 30112.5 | Points allowed | 120.624th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+6.7 | Margin | −4.922nd of 30 |
| 8th of 30116.3 | Offense rating | 113.118th of 30 |
| 4th of 30109.8 | Defense rating | 117.824th of 30 |
| 16th of 30102.3 | Pace | 101.918th of 30 |
| 2nd of 309–1 | Last 10 | 2–822nd of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Road vs home | 4–621st of 30 |
| 29th of 301464 | Opponent Elo | 149120th of 30 |
| 15th of 301521 | Elo rating | 131129th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
+69 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hornets
+40 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  CHA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 11–8 | 9–10 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–5 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 4–3 | 8–8 |
| Overs–unders | 8–11 | 8–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 6–2 CHA in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 8.
- Nov 17CHA 108 @ TOR 110Picked TOR 73%Hit
- Apr 9CHA 96 @ TOR 126Picked TOR 80%Hit
- Mar 28CHA 97 @ TOR 108Picked TOR 66%Hit
- Oct 30TOR 133 @ CHA 138Picked CHA 68%Hit
- Mar 3CHA 106 @ TOR 111Picked TOR 54%Hit
- Feb 7TOR 123 @ CHA 117Picked TOR 56%Hit
- Dec 18CHA 99 @ TOR 114Picked TOR 67%Hit
- Dec 8TOR 116 @ CHA 119Picked TOR 54%Miss