Toronto Raptors at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- Immanuel QuickleyPoints19
- Immanuel QuickleyAssists8
- Collin Murray-BoylesRebounds8
Knicks- Karl-Anthony TownsPoints22
- Josh HartAssists7
- Mitchell RobinsonRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game94–116
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter94–116
- Q417.2Jamison Battle steps out of bounds turnover94–116
- Q429.0Tyler Kolek makes 1-foot two point shot94–116
- Q437.1Jamison Battle makes 13-foot two point shot (Jonathan Mogbo assists)94–114
- Q448.4Tyler Kolek makes free throw 2 of 292–114
- Q448.4Tyler Kolek makes free throw 1 of 292–113
- Q448.4Chucky Hepburn shooting foul92–112
- Q456.3Ariel Hukporti defensive rebound92–112
- Q458.0Jonathan Mogbo misses layup92–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q22:44Mikal Bridges makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)TOR 46 – 54 NY · NY 80% → 85% +5NY 80% → 85%+5 pts
- Q38:52Immanuel Quickley makes 27-foot running pullup jump shot (Scottie Barnes assists)TOR 59 – 64 NY · TOR 14% → 20% +6TOR 14% → 20%+6 pts
- Q37:49Immanuel Quickley makes 27-foot three point shot (Ochai Agbaji assists)TOR 65 – 70 NY · TOR 14% → 20% +6TOR 14% → 20%+6 pts
- Q36:51Karl-Anthony Towns makes two point shotTOR 67 – 72 NY · NY 75% → 80% +5NY 75% → 80%+5 pts
- Q35:39Josh Hart makes 23-foot three point jumper (Mikal Bridges assists)TOR 68 – 77 NY · NY 82% → 88% +6NY 82% → 88%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 75%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- NY -8.5
- ML TOR +280 / NY -360
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 75%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -5.5
- NY 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.7 pts
- NY: Elo 70.1%, market 74.8%
- Fair odds
- NY -297
- TOR +297 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 110.5 – 119.0 NY
- Posted spread, posted total 229.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1596 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | TOR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +34 | +14 | TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups · NY: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +148 Elo | NY 70.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 75.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 74.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 74.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30118.8 | Points scored | 120.75th of 30 |
| 4th of 30112.8 | Points allowed | 114.09th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+6.0 | Margin | +6.74th of 30 |
| 8th of 30115.8 | Offense rating | 118.93rd of 30 |
| 6th of 30110.0 | Defense rating | 112.313th of 30 |
| 16th of 30101.8 | Pace | 101.421st of 30 |
| 2nd of 309–1 | Last 10 | 7–37th of 30 |
| 7th of 307–4 | Road vs home | 9–12nd of 30 |
| 29th of 301459 | Opponent Elo | 147827th of 30 |
| 15th of 301504 | Elo rating | 15966th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
+34 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Knicks
+14 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  NY |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 11–9 | 10–8 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–6 | 9–6 |
| Underdog | 4–3 | 1–2 |
| Overs–unders | 8–12 | 10–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 0–8 NY in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 8.
- Feb 4NY 121 @ TOR 115Picked NY 66%Hit
- Jan 8TOR 98 @ NY 112Picked NY 85%Hit
- Dec 23TOR 125 @ NY 139Picked NY 86%Hit
- Dec 9NY 113 @ TOR 108Picked NY 73%Hit
- Mar 27NY 145 @ TOR 101Picked NY 79%Hit
- Jan 20TOR 100 @ NY 126Picked NY 71%Hit
- Dec 11TOR 130 @ NY 136Picked NY 62%Hit
- Dec 1NY 119 @ TOR 106Picked TOR 57%Miss